Jaguars Vs Chiefs
1:00pm EST
Arrowhead Stadium
Sunday, December 30, 2006
Something I've been wanting to do all season is a weekly pick of a big game and my personal breakdown and thoughts on that game. Being that this is the last week of the regular season, it's a little late, but I'm still going to lay this one out, and look to next years season to make this a regular weekly post along with all my picks. So here it goes.
Jacksonville enters into this final game on the outside looking in for a wild card spot. They desperately need the win to gain even a glimmer of hope in the post season, but a win isn't all they need. If the Jaguars pull off this win they would also need the N.Y. Jets to lose, the Cincinnati Bengals to lose, and the Tennessee Titans to lose. The Jaguars are currently power ranked 13th by CBS and ESPN, and 12th by Fox. Their statistical rankings offensively is 9th overall. Breaking down to 10th in total yards averaging 335.1 yards per game, 2nd in the rushing yards averaging 162.5 yards per game and 26th in passing yards averaging 172.6 yards per game. On Defense they are statictically ranked #4. Defensive ranking consisting of 2nd in total yards averaging 276.2 yards per game, 3rd in rushing yards averaging 86.0 yards per game, and 11th in passing yards averaging 190.2 yards per game.
Kansas City is also another team on the outside looking in for a wild card spot this week, needing a win to remain a candidate for a berth, but also needing assistance. In order for Kansas City to make the playoffs they would need Cincinnati Bengals to lose or tie, Denver Broncos to lose or tie, and Tennessee Titans to lose or tie as well as win thier own final game. CBS has Kansas City power ranked 12th overall, were ESPN and Fox have them ranked 14th. Thier offensive ranking under statistics is 9th overall. They are currently 16th in total yards averaging 316.5 yards per game, 8th in rushing yards averaging 131.5 yards per game, and 21st in passing yards averaging 185.0 yards per game. On the defensive side of the ball the Chiefs are ranked 9th overall. This consists of a 15th rank in total yards allowed at 324.3 yards per game, 18th in rushing yards allowing 131.5 yards per game, and 14th in passing yards allowing 203.3 yards per game.
Alright, aside for what the big boys of sports have broken down for rankings on these two teams, who's going to win and how?
Arrowhead stadium is one of NFL's most difficult stadiums for an away team to play in. The fans are active, loud, and give a solid 12th man to thier Chiefs. Jacksonville will enter Arrowhead stadium this week for thier final game of the regular season to face a Kansas City team that is 5-2 at home. Looking to overcome some of their own issues on the road, the Jaguars have been a meger 2-5 in thier road games. As much as this game favors the home team, I'm not convinced the Chief are guaranteed any victory here by a long shot.
The Chief #18 run defense is going to have to face the #2 run offense in the league as they go up against the Jaguars. Fred Taylor(listed probable - Hamstring) is a very capable running back that has been averaging 5 yards per carry through the season, racking up 1120 yards and 5 touchdowns; However, Taylor is only the beginning of the Chiefs worries in the run game. Maurice Jones-Drew(listed probable - Knee) has been a fast rising rookie that is dominating in his run game. His average yards per carry is currently at 5.8 and he's managed to chalk up 12 touchdown for the Jacksonville offense this season. Combine these two running backs and turn them loose on a defense that is allowing an average of 121 yards per game and this could spell disaster for the Chiefs. The key to victory for the Jaguars lies with the run game. They need to manage the clock, stick to thier run game, and can't fall behind. If the Jaguars find themselves in a catch up situation they will be forcing thier #26 pass offense to overcome the #14 pass defense.
The Chiefs face an even bigger problem on thier offense. As much as Larry Johnson is considered a premier running back in the NFL, averaging 4.3 yards a carry with 14 touchdowns on the season, this matchup may be difficult for him as he faces the #3 rushing defense this week. Needing to establish a run game, L.J. and the Chiefs must do so against a defense that has only been allowing an average 86 rushing yards per game. If unable to run the ball, Trent Green will be forced to take to the air, something he's been having trouble with since his return. With Jacksonville ranked 11th against the pass they could easily find themselves creating problems for Trent Greens' air game.
All in all, I'm expecting a Jacksonville victory. Predicted final score 24-13 Jacksonville. Neither team makes the playoffs.
-Silver Dragon
Jacksonville Jaguars -Power Rank -#13 CBS, #13 ESPN, #12 Fox
#9 statistical offensive
-#10 total yards, 335.1, #2 Rushing yards, 162.5, #26 Passing yards, 172.6
#4 statistical Defensive
-#2 total yards, 276.2, #3 Rushing yards, 86.0, #11 Passing yards, 190.2
Kansas City Chiefs # 12 CBS, #14 Espn, #14 Fox
# 16 offensively
-#16 total yards, 316.5, #8 Rushing yards, 131.5, #21 Passing yards, 185.0
#9 Defensively
-#15 Total yards, 324.3, #18 Rushing yards, 121.0, #14 Passing yards, 203.3
Jacksonville enters into this final game on the outside looking in for a wild card spot. They desperately need the win to gain even a glimmer of hope in the post season, but a win isn't all they need. If the Jaguars pull off this win they would also need the N.Y. Jets to lose, the Cincinnati Bengals to lose, and the Tennessee Titans to lose. The Jaguars are currently power ranked 13th by CBS and ESPN, and 12th by Fox. Their statistical rankings offensively is 9th overall. Breaking down to 10th in total yards averaging 335.1 yards per game, 2nd in the rushing yards averaging 162.5 yards per game and 26th in passing yards averaging 172.6 yards per game. On Defense they are statictically ranked #4. Defensive ranking consisting of 2nd in total yards averaging 276.2 yards per game, 3rd in rushing yards averaging 86.0 yards per game, and 11th in passing yards averaging 190.2 yards per game.
Kansas City is also another team on the outside looking in for a wild card spot this week, needing a win to remain a candidate for a berth, but also needing assistance. In order for Kansas City to make the playoffs they would need Cincinnati Bengals to lose or tie, Denver Broncos to lose or tie, and Tennessee Titans to lose or tie as well as win thier own final game. CBS has Kansas City power ranked 12th overall, were ESPN and Fox have them ranked 14th. Thier offensive ranking under statistics is 9th overall. They are currently 16th in total yards averaging 316.5 yards per game, 8th in rushing yards averaging 131.5 yards per game, and 21st in passing yards averaging 185.0 yards per game. On the defensive side of the ball the Chiefs are ranked 9th overall. This consists of a 15th rank in total yards allowed at 324.3 yards per game, 18th in rushing yards allowing 131.5 yards per game, and 14th in passing yards allowing 203.3 yards per game.
Alright, aside for what the big boys of sports have broken down for rankings on these two teams, who's going to win and how?
Arrowhead stadium is one of NFL's most difficult stadiums for an away team to play in. The fans are active, loud, and give a solid 12th man to thier Chiefs. Jacksonville will enter Arrowhead stadium this week for thier final game of the regular season to face a Kansas City team that is 5-2 at home. Looking to overcome some of their own issues on the road, the Jaguars have been a meger 2-5 in thier road games. As much as this game favors the home team, I'm not convinced the Chief are guaranteed any victory here by a long shot.
The Chief #18 run defense is going to have to face the #2 run offense in the league as they go up against the Jaguars. Fred Taylor(listed probable - Hamstring) is a very capable running back that has been averaging 5 yards per carry through the season, racking up 1120 yards and 5 touchdowns; However, Taylor is only the beginning of the Chiefs worries in the run game. Maurice Jones-Drew(listed probable - Knee) has been a fast rising rookie that is dominating in his run game. His average yards per carry is currently at 5.8 and he's managed to chalk up 12 touchdown for the Jacksonville offense this season. Combine these two running backs and turn them loose on a defense that is allowing an average of 121 yards per game and this could spell disaster for the Chiefs. The key to victory for the Jaguars lies with the run game. They need to manage the clock, stick to thier run game, and can't fall behind. If the Jaguars find themselves in a catch up situation they will be forcing thier #26 pass offense to overcome the #14 pass defense.
The Chiefs face an even bigger problem on thier offense. As much as Larry Johnson is considered a premier running back in the NFL, averaging 4.3 yards a carry with 14 touchdowns on the season, this matchup may be difficult for him as he faces the #3 rushing defense this week. Needing to establish a run game, L.J. and the Chiefs must do so against a defense that has only been allowing an average 86 rushing yards per game. If unable to run the ball, Trent Green will be forced to take to the air, something he's been having trouble with since his return. With Jacksonville ranked 11th against the pass they could easily find themselves creating problems for Trent Greens' air game.
All in all, I'm expecting a Jacksonville victory. Predicted final score 24-13 Jacksonville. Neither team makes the playoffs.
-Silver Dragon
Jacksonville Jaguars -Power Rank -#13 CBS, #13 ESPN, #12 Fox
#9 statistical offensive
-#10 total yards, 335.1, #2 Rushing yards, 162.5, #26 Passing yards, 172.6
#4 statistical Defensive
-#2 total yards, 276.2, #3 Rushing yards, 86.0, #11 Passing yards, 190.2
Kansas City Chiefs # 12 CBS, #14 Espn, #14 Fox
# 16 offensively
-#16 total yards, 316.5, #8 Rushing yards, 131.5, #21 Passing yards, 185.0
#9 Defensively
-#15 Total yards, 324.3, #18 Rushing yards, 121.0, #14 Passing yards, 203.3
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1 comment:
Nice breakdown of the game. Not sure I agree with Jacksonville winning, Arrowhead is a tough place to play, but I liked your breakdown.
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