Super Bowl XLII Pick

Super Bowl XLII – Glendale, AZ
University of Phoenix Stadium
February 3, 2008 @ 6:20PM EST

New York Giants(13-6) Vs New England Patriots(18-0)

The Line – Giants +11.5 / Patriots -11.5 Over/Under 53.5

The Patriots and the Giants will be leaving the cold behind and making a trip to the warm and sunny Phoenix, Arizona area to bask in the heat of the flash bulbs and camera lights as they step atop the world’s greatest stage in the football world. Newspapers, magazines, radio stations, and televisions are buzzing with the excitement and build up the hype as each team makes their preparations for the Super Bowl. So with all the hype and excitement, who will take the field with the best preparation? Who has the confidence to succeed? Who has the heart to lay it all on the line every second for a full sixty minutes? And once that final whistle blows, who will hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy in conquest?

The Giants

Ranked # 8 in overall offense the New York Giants has been able to average 197.1 passing yards per game (21^st) and 134.4 rushing yards per game (4th), which has amounted to an average 331.4 total yards (16^th) and 23.3 points per game (14^th). Their defense has shown a consistent improvement over each of the last few weeks placing them 5^th in overall defense. Allowing an average of 207.3 yards passing per game (11^th) and only 97.7 rushing yards per game (8^th) their opposing teams have only averaged 302.0 yards per game (7^th) and scored an average 21.9 points (17^th).

The Patriots

Ranked #2 in overall offense the New England Patriots has been able to average 295.7 passing yards (1^st) and 115.6 rushing yards per game (13^th) giving the Patriots an average of 411.2 yards (1^st)and 36.8 points scored per game (1^st). This has allowed their defense to be good, but not top of the line as they have ranked 8^th overall in the NFL. However, only allowing an average 190.1 passing yards (6^th), 98.2 rushing yards (10^th), and 288.3 total yards (4^th) with 17.1 points a game (4^th) can be crippling to an opponent that is forced to stop New England’s high powered offense.

The Showdown

Eli Manning has seemed to snap out of his unpredictable good quarterback/bad quarterback, Jekyll and Hyde play that plagued him during the regular season to complete 53 of 85 for 599 yards and four touchdowns in the postseason, and has put together a completion percentage of 62.4 and no interceptions. After a close match up with New England in the final game of the regular season, and Plaxico Burress’s outstanding performance of 154 yards on 11 receptions in the NFC Championship, no one can tell the Giants they don’t stand a chance to win this weekend. Eli has been having dreams of a Super Bowl ring to compare to his brothers, “and I got mine sooner Peyton,” is the mock he would love to gloat over. But don’t think Tom Brady and Randy Moss don’t have plans of their own, with history in the making and perfection 3600 playable seconds away from the moment of kickoff, the Patriots and Belichick have every intention of not only winning, but obliterating the spread. I’ll never jump the Patriots bandwagon, and would actually find some satisfaction in a Giants win, but only a Giant fan or someone crossing their fingers for play uncharacteristic of the Patriots team could take the risk of picking the Giants to win.

Patriots Perfect season, sets an unbreakable record
Vince Lombardi Trophy goes to the Patriot World Champions.

NFL Conference Championship Picks ATS

With the games just hours away, it would probably be a good idea for me to take the time to make my ATS picks. Finishing 2-2 last week, I can hardly hope to improve much as we are now down to only two games. Both games sporting spreads larger than a touchdown, the home teams are once again considered heavy favorites, but so were last weeks home teams who only accounted for 50% of the wins. So who covers this week? Who beats the spread? Let’s have a look.

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Sunday, January 20th, 2008

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San Diego Chargers
New England Patriots -14
The Chargers have proven to be a surprisingly better team than expected after last weeks dismantling of Peyton Manning and the Colts, but too many injuries against this Patriots team is going to prove to be entirely too much to handle.

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New York Giants +8
Green Bay Packers
Giants have been playing at the top of their game after deciding to give the Patriots a run for their money in their final regular season game. They want a rematch in the Super Bowl and will battle to the final whistle with the Packers, but Favre in the final seconds proves to be the final touch on a Packers victory.

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And that’s how I see it this weekend. Chargers made a good run, but just can’t run through New England and the Giants keep it close enough to beat the spread, just not the Packers. Patriots and Packers, see you in Arizona.

NFL Conference Championship Picks

I couldn’t have been more pleased with a 2-0 start in last weeks match ups, but as upsets are becoming more of a rule in the NFL, my 0-2 finish left me 2-2 on the Divisional weekend. Can’t say that I’m disappointed, the San Diego upset over Indy was shocking, jaw-dropping, and down right exciting. The Giants win may not have been as big of a surprise, but it was still a game that was edge of your seat and down to the wire. We can only hope that this weeks match ups continue to impress and intrigue. With no real need to hype, these games are exciting all on their own, lets get right down to the picks.

ALL TIMES ARE EASTERN

Sunday, January 20^th, 2008

AFC Conference Championship

#3 San Diego Chargers(13-5) at #1 New England Patriots(17-0) 3:00PM (CBS)

I must admit, I had never expected to see the Chargers make it this far and I can’t say that they haven’t deserved it. This Chargers team has come together to play their best game at the most important time, and Philip Rivers managed to fit together an impressive game against the Colts last week. Unfortunately, Rivers will be a game time decision this week, Antonio Gates is still nursing an injured toe, and LaDainian Tomlinson will be working off a bruised knee. Shawne Merriman is going to have his hands full this week as I expect Tom Brady will be able to deliver his passes quickly, and the Chargers battered offense may leave Merriman and the rest of the defense on the field for a good portion of this match up. So these injuries couldn’t have come at a worse time and now the Chargers will be traveling to Foxboro to take on the seemingly undefeatable Patriots. With confidence and experience, Tom Brady will be leading his Patriots into yet another AFC Championship game at home. With a run game in the legs of Laurence Maroney and Kevin Faulk, the Patriots should have just enough to keep the Charger defense honest. Targeting numerous receivers in Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and Donte’ Stallworth, this match up could prove to be another Tom Brady show. Can the Chargers continue to overcome and defeat the Patriots this week even with all their injuries? Or will this game be over by half time?

Patriots advance to the Super Bowl again in an attempt to cap their perfect season.

NFC Conference Championship

#5 New York Giants(12-6) at #2 Green Bay Packers(14-3) 6:30PM (FOX)

The Giants are another team that has become hot at just the right time. Everyone expected to see Manning in the Conference Championship; we’re just surprised it’s in the NFC Championship. A sporadic and inconsistent quarterback, Eli Manning has somehow managed to pull himself together for a series of games when the games matter the most. With Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer cutting back on the number of drops they were prone to earlier in the season and pop you in the mouth run style of Brandon Jacobs, this offense has been getting it done on the playing field. To top it off, the return of Michael Strahan to the Giants defense has only added spark to their defensive play and held opponents in manageable games. This week they will have to travel to Lambeau Field and attempt to manage Brett Favre and his young Packers team. This team has been on a hot streak of their own and will look to attack the Giants defense in every way possible. Favre will continue to utilize Greg Jennings and Donald Driver who have been fantastic in making plays after the catch this season. Then there is the up and coming Packer star in Ryan Grant, who has turned a few heads over the Packers run game and lit an ice cold field on fire last week with 201 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Can he repeat the performance? Snow showers are predicted for Friday and Saturday in Green Bay, a lag in those clouds could mean more for Sunday, and with a temperature high of 10 degrees these teams should feel right at home and us fans should be in for quite a game.

Packers prevail with a finishing touch by Favre.

And that pretty much gives you my Super Bowl participants for 2008. Two cold weather teams will be battling for the World Title in hot and sunny Phoenix, AZ. But we’ll talk about that game at another time.

NFL Divisional Playoff Picks ATS

It’s about that time of the week again to address the spread of our NFL playoff games and decide who will cover or who will beat that spread. In last weeks Wild Card Weekend I split my ATS picks by finishing 2-2. Even is better than losing, but winning is always better, so this week I am looking to improve those numbers to 4-0. Everybody ready? Here we go.

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Saturday, January 12, 2008

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Seattle Seahawks +7.5
Green Bay Packers

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Jacksonville Jaguars +13
New England Patriots

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Sunday, January 13, 2008

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San Diego Chargers
Indianapolis Colts -9

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New York Giants +7.5
Dallas Cowboys

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There they are the ATS picks. I’ve got three out of four underdogs picked to beat the spread, but don’t expect any of them to win this week. Both NFC match ups this week should be close games that I would expect to finish within a touchdown. As for Jacksonville, I believe they have the talent to win this match up, but lack the experience. I expect they will lose the game somewhere around 12-14 points making this spread a difficult one for me to pick. Then there is the Chargers / Colts game in which I expect nothing less than a dominate showing by Peyton Manning and the Colts.

Everyone enjoy the Divisional Playoffs, there’s nothing better than the thrill of the NFL playoffs.

NFL Divisional Playoff Picks

Last week was a bad week to be an even number. Whether you were AFC or NFC, it was the #4 and #6 seeds that were sent home. Two road teams won and two road teams lost. This week our well rested bye week teams will be receiving the challenge of the Wild Card survivors. Can any road teams prevail this week? Or will the NFL’s top seeds play their top games? Last week I found myself finishing with a 3-1 record in the Wild Card round, I’m looking to improve that this week with a 4-0. Here’s how I see this weekend playing out.

ALL TIMES ARE EASTERN

Saturday, January 12^th, 2008

NFC Divisional Playoffs

#3 Seattle Seahawks(11-6) at #2 Green Bay Packers(13-3) 4:30PM (FOX)

Seattle played a good game at home last week as they hosted the Washington Redskins. The defense controlled Clinton Portis, dismantled the Skins passing game, and ran away with the scoreboard in the fourth quarter. Congratulations to them. However, that was last week, and this is this week. Now the Seahawks will have to take their game onto the road where they have been a weak 3-5 this season. Not to mention Green Bay’s defense is ranked just above Seattle. This is where the Shaun Alexander’s lack of a run game this season is going to bit the Seahawks. Without a viable run threat, Al Harris and Charles Woodson will be begging Matt Hasselbeck to throw the ball. Brett Favre on the other hand should keep this game moving right along in their favor by dumping the ball repeatedly into the hands of Donald Driver and Greg Jennings who have been perfectly capable of making a big play out of a short pass this season. The Packers will also be keeping the Seattle defense in check with several Ryan Grant carries; He’s continued to offer the Packers the run game they lacked early in the season.

Packers bring back the glory to Lambeau Field with a Playoff win

AFC Divisional Playoffs

#5 Jacksonville Jaguars(12-5) at #1 New England Patriots(16-0) 8:00PM (CBS)

The Jaguars could have what it takes to walk into Foxboro and topple the top ranked team in the NFL. The hard hitting, smash mouth defense that was all up in the face of Ben Roethlisberger last week are going to battle their way into the backfield in hopes of taking a few shots at Tom Brady while their offense will pound away on the Patriots defense with the legs of Maurice Jones-Drew. The key to the Jaguars win is going to be a defensive turnover or two and clock management. They need to allow Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor to breakdown the Patriots defense on the ground. This will open up a few passing lanes for David Garrard to strike while the defense is on their heels. While some of us have jumped aboard the Patriots bandwagon, others are fuming for this team to be overthrown. While I believe the Jaguars have the talent and capabilities to overthrow this NFL powerhouse, I believe there is one large, key factor in this game that is going to rise above it all…experience. It’s painfully obvious that the Patriots are stacked with talent themselves, sporting the likes of Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and Mike Vrabel, add that to home field advantage and the fact that the Patriots have been in the playoffs time and time again and it makes it hard to visualize Jacksonville not making at least one more mistake that losses the game. Especially after letting the Steelers come within striking distance of victory last week.

Patriots remain on their quest for history

Sunday, January 13^th, 2008

AFC Divisional Playoffs

#3 San Diego Chargers(12-5) at #2 Indianapolis Colts(13-3) 1:00PM (CBS)

Nobody seemed to think that Tennessee would have a chance going up against the Chargers in San Diego last week and yet they managed to control the entire first half with a shut out for the second time this season. Give credit to the Chargers, they did come back out in the second half to put the game away, but that first half goes to show that the Chargers simply aren’t the team they were a year ago. LaDainian Tomlinson continues to play like a top running back, but seems to lack the invincibility he portrayed last year. Antonio Gates has been listed as questionable and might not be much of a factor if he does attempt to play. Then there’s Philip Rivers, who can have a flash of greatness from time to time, but tends to be more of a disappointment than a star. While Peyton Manning brings success to his team, the Chargers have brought more success to Rivers than he has given back. The Chargers shouldn’t be a team to be overlooked, but with Marvin Harrison back in the line up opposite of Reggie Wayne, Manning should be at the top of his game. Add at least 85 yards on the ground and a few completions to Joseph Addai, one of the overall top ranked defenses in the NFL and I don’t see the Chargers serving up any upsets in the RCA Dome this year. Sorry Charger fans, Norv Turner wasn’t the key to get you into the Super Bowl, Marty Schottenheimer won’t have to worry about another coach taking the team he put together to the Big Game.

Colts advance to attempt a repeat of last years Conference Championship

NFC Divisional Playoffs

#5 New York Giants(11-6) at #1 Dallas Cowboys(13-3) 4:30PM (FOX)

This match up should be a game of offense as I’m sure everyone expects the highest scoring team in the NFC to rack up a few points. Just in case you aren’t sure who I’m talking about, it’s the Cowboys at 28.4 points per game. When players compared side by side, I’m not sure the Giants have any offensive advantage. Who would you rather have playing on your team this year, Tony Romo or Eli Manning? Marion Barber or Brandon Jacobs? Jason Witten or Kevin Boss? Terrell Owens or Plaxico Burress? Of course, at this point Owens is questionable and Burress is still nicked up, but he has been most of the season and still plays. It would seem most angles would lead to a Dallas victory, but of all the match ups going into the Divisional weekend I think this one has the most potential for an upset. The Giants have now gone 8-1 on the road this season after winning all of their last 5 road games. I think the question in this game is going to be, can the good Eli Manning make three game appearances in a row, or will the bad Manning rear his ugly head at the Giants this weekend? Part of me wants to pick the upset while the Giants are on a roll; the other part of me fears the schizophrenic play of Eli Manning. It’s decision time. Looks like I’m going to go with…

Cowboys take the big “W” in the Big “D”

Well, last week I was worried about picking three of the four road teams to win the Wild Card match ups, it looks like I’ve completely reversed my position this week by taking all four of the home teams. This could be a recipe for disaster, I can’t recall if the home teams have swept a divisional weekend in recent history. If there are any upsets to be had this weekend, I think we will find them taking place in the NFC as I feel our dominant one and two seed in the AFC will remain steadfast. Of course, you know there’s only one way to find out. Time to pull up a spot on the sofa and crack open that ice cold beer…, it’s time for some football.

NFL Wildcard Weekend ATS

It’s time for the playoffs, and what better way to show it than to look over the spread. With the exception of one game this week, all the match ups are sitting on a three point spread, the typical number given to the home team when Vegas thinks the teams are evenly matched. It should be a great weekend for football.

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Washington Redskins +3
Seattle Seahawks

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Jacksonville Jaguars -3
Pittsburgh Steelers

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New York Giants +3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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Tennessee Titans
San Diego Chargers -10

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Looks like I’m going balanced this week taking two favorites and two underdogs. We should see some close hard fought battles taking place on the field this weekend. Are you ready for some football?

NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks

The 2007 regular season is now a thing of the past, something to be referred back to and talked of in past tense, but the post season is fresh and new and at the top of topics to discussion and debate. Welcome to the 2008 post season battle field. Now it’s a fight between the best of the best for a chance at the covenanted title of World Champions and the fulfillment of the dream of the elusive honor of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy high into the confetti filled air. This week the top teams with lesser records in the regular season will fight to prove their worth to advance into Divisional match ups where they will test their will against their conferences best. Who will prevail and move forward? Who will be sent home with shattered dreams? Only the fourth quarter whistle will tell the tale, but I’ll tell you who I think are going… Welcome to the Wild Card Weekend.

ALL TIMES ARE EASTERN

First Round Bye: New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers

Saturday January 5th 2008

NFC Wildcard

#6 Washington Redskins(9-7) at #3 Seattle Seahawks(10-6) 4:30PM (NBC)

The Redskins defense has been allowing an average of 91.1 rushing yards per game this season and should prove problematic for an ineffective Shaun Alexander and back up Maurice Morris. The Seattle run defense hasn’t been bad, but they will have to up their game against Clinton Portis who’s 1262 rushing yards is ranked 6^th in the NFL and who is fourth in rushing touchdowns with 11 this season. Add an effective Todd Collins, who has yet to throw in interception or lose a game since filling in for Jason Campbell, and Matt Hasselbeck may have his work cut out for him in this match up. The Seahawks may have been 7-1 at home this season, but chances are the Skins won’t be willing to give in easily.

Redskins finish on top of a hard fought road game.

AFC Wildcard

#5 Jacksonville Jaguars(11-5) at #4 Pittsburgh Steelers(10-6) 8:00PM (NBC)

Just three weeks ago in Week 15, the Jaguars made this trip to Pittsburgh and upset the favored Steelers home team. They weren’t affected by the snow, swirling winds, cold temperatures and soft, soggy field, a perfect field and beautiful weather aren’t needed for a smash mouth run offense. If the weather isn’t permitting for David Garrard to take to the air, where he has a 64% completion rate and has 18 touchdown passes with only three interceptions, they can simply lean on the running tandem of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew to get the job done. This team is set to run down a second win in Pittsburgh as the loss of Willie Parker could prove to be detrimental to the Steeler offense.

Jaguars advance to Divisional to take on undefeated Patriots

Sunday January 6th 2008

NFC Wildcard

#5 New York Giants(10-6) at #4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers(9-7) 1:00PM (FOX)

The Giants put up quite the performance last week against New England, showing they have what it takes to control the field. However, as all teams that have nearly upset the Patriots, they were unable to hold on at the end. This week the Giants will have to travel for their first post season match up. This could be good news for a team that has been 7-1 on the road this season. The key to a Giants victory will rely on the driving leg force of Brandon Jacobs as he matches up against a Tampa defense allowing an average 107.9 rushing yards per game. If Tampa can shut down Jacobs, their stingy pass defense, who is only allowing a league low average of 170.9 passing yards per game, could make for a long day behind center for Eli Manning. A good match up and a game worth watching, only one will be able to walk out a winner.

Giants find a lead, and then manage to hold on for a close victory

AFC Wildcard

#6 Tennessee Titans(10-6) at #3 San Diego Chargers(11-5) 4:30PM (CBS)

The Titans were able to hold on and win in Indianapolis last week and grab hold of the last Wildcard slot in the AFC. But just getting into the playoffs may not be enough for this team to advance in the playoffs. After a slow stumbling start, the Chargers have been running on a hot streak named LaDainian Tomlinson. If the Titans intend to win in San Diego they will need to find away to neutralize LT from the Chargers offensive equation. If they can rest the fate of the game on Philip Rivers shoulder the Titans have a good opportunity for success, but how do you stop LT? And can Vince Young and LenDale White punch holes in the sturdy Chargers defense? In the end, I think it will be too much to ask of the Titans organization.

Chargers bolt forward to advance into Indy

The games are around the corner, the tensions are running high. I’ve told you who I think will win, do you agree? Only one way to find out, meet ya at the television set, tailgating at the field, tuned in on the radio, or around the corner at the local bar, it’s time for some football.