NFL Week 4 ATS

Last week certainly didn’t break the bank account as I recorded a 10-3-3 week. Not that it would make much of a difference, but of the 3 even games, I was 2-1 in straight up picks.

Alright, this week will be short and sweet.

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September 30, 2007, Sunday

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Oakland Raiders +4
Miami Dolphins
I’m taking the Dolphins to win here, but not by more than a field goal. Raiders cover.

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Houston Texans -3
Atlanta Falcons
Matt Schaub will match up against his former team and show them what they are missing. Take Houston, give the points.

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Baltimore Ravens
Cleveland Browns +4
Ravens defense should be able to hold the Browns to a low score, but the Baltimore offense won’t be able to run up the score themselves. Take the Browns to cover.

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Chicago Bears -3
Detroit Lions
Bears defense is a little banged up, but they will still remain dominate. I’d give the points, only because Grossman won’t be throwing the ball. Take the Bears give the points.

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Green Bay Packers -3
Minnesota Vikings
Packers are for real this year. Favre has improved and their defense is good. Take the Pack, give the measly three points.

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St. Louis Rams
Dallas Cowboys -13.5
Of three games, the Rams have lost one by 14 and another by 21. The Cowboys have won by 10, 17, and 24. Take Dallas, give the points.

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New York Jets -3.5
Buffalo Bills
Thomas Jones should run wild. Jets and give the points.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3
Carolina Panthers
Jake Delhomme is most likely out. Ouch. Buccaneers steal away with another? Bucs, take the points.

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Seattle Seahawks -2.5
San Francisco 49ers
By a field goal right before overtime, Seahawks, give the points.

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Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5
Arizona Cardinals
Cardinals win one game over Seattle and they get better odds than San Fran did against the Steelers? Take the Steelers and give, give, give the points.

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Kansas City Chiefs +12
San Diego Chargers
Chargers win, but I have my concerns here. Twelve is too many. Chiefs cover.

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Denver Broncos +10
Indianapolis Colts
Some may say this is a homer pick (Go Broncos), but Indy has been keeping it within seven over the last two match ups. Broncos cover.

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Philadelphia Eagles -3
New York Giants
Both teams came around last week, and both teams have had high scoring games. Hairs on the back of my neck say Philly gives the points.

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October 1, 2007, Monday Night Football

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New England Patriots -7.5
Cincinnati Bengals
I know the Bengals have a high powered offense, but the Patriots defense has done well this year and New England has yet to have a close game. I don’t think they start against the porous pass defense of the Bengals. Tom Brady and Randy Moss have a field day. Take the Patriots and give the 7.5. Heck, give 10, give 13. You could probably even get away with giving 16… well, ok, let’s not get carried away, maybe not 16.

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And there you have it. Week 4 picks ATS. Good Luck.

Week 4 Updates

Well, it looks like Rex Grossman will officially be benched this week as Brian Griese takes the starting position going into Detroit. My opinion on this is that it only increases my confidence that the Bears will emerge victorious because right now, ANYTHING is better than Grossman.

Also, Steven Jackson is officially out for the Rams. That's just driving the nail home into the coffin as St. Louis travels to Dallas to face the Cowboys this week. Both of these updates only improve the confidence of my current picks for these games.

NFL Week 4 Picks

Welcome to Week 4 of the NFL!!! After three weeks of football, the teams are starting to define themselves for who they are. Lesser teams have fallen from the undefeated ranks while a few struggling teams have finally found some chemistry to take their first win. A few teams have continued to dominate in each of their match ups to stand out among the best, while others just can’t seem to remember which way to move the ball, ranking them among the worst. And at the relief of some of these teams, bye-weeks will start this week allowing them to regain some composure.

My stats for last week were shocking to even myself as I felt the week went much worse than my stats reveal. Much like New England, who has scored exactly 38 points in all three opening weeks, I have gone 10-6 for three consecutive weeks. This brings my season totals to 30 of 48 or 30-18 (.625). With the beginning of bye-weeks it will be impossible for me to have a fourth consecutive 10-6 week, so will it be 10-4 or 8-6? Personally, I’m hoping for 14-0. We’ll have to wait and see.

ALL TIMES ARE EASTERN

Sunday, September 30, 2007

Open date: Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints, Tennessee Titans, Washington Redskins

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns 1:00 PM

Derek Anderson went from 328 yards, 5 touchdowns and an interception against the lackluster defense in Cincinnati to 248 yards, 1 touchdown and two interceptions against a more competent defense in Oakland. That could bring additional problems to Cleveland this week as Ray Lewis and the Ravens defense travel into town.

Ravens win on the road.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions 1:00 PM

The Bears defense should be feeling used and abused after last weeks match up against Dallas. However, Jon Kitna probably won’t be slinging the ball down the field as efficiently as Tony Romo, and the Lions don’t have a Terrell Owens. The Lions only hope will be their own defense and the turn over machine that is Rex Grossman. Possible upset here for Chicago? Maybe, but…

Bears even up their record to .500.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings 1:00 PM

The Packers beat Philadelphia and ears perked up. Then they beat New York and people shrugged, ‘OK’. Last week they defeated San Diego and now you should really take notice and wonder just how good this team has gotten. Brett Favre was looking sharp once again last week as he went 369 yards for 3 touchdowns and no interceptions. The Vikings defense are going to have their hands full this week.

Packers collect a victory on the road and remain undefeated!

Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons 1:00 PM

It looks like Andre Johnson may be missing another week as the Texans travel to Atlanta. Good news is that Houston still pulled within six of Indianapolis and threatened to give a possible upset. Granted the Texans will continue to miss Johnson, but even without him this team may should be capable of winning a game or two to keep in the running.

Texans rebound with a victory in Week 4.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills 1:00 PM

The Jets managed to save themselves from going 0-3 last week as they rose above Miami to spark a positive spin on their season. The Bills haven’t been so lucky. Now the Bills are looking for some sort of redemption on their season, but as Thomas Jones and Jerricho Cotchery only continue to get healthy, more options are opening up to Chad Pennington and the Jets. So once again this week, I get to chant…

J. E. T. S., Jets, Jets, Jets!!!!

Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins 1:00 PM

The Raiders have risen above the winless teams to claim their first victory in last weeks match up against Cleveland. This week they will travel across the country to meet up with the Dolphins, who have had struggles of their own. Trent Green has been throwing more interceptions than touchdowns and Ronnie Brown has only averaged 3.9 yards a carry (and only that after an improved performance against the Jets last week). Combine that with another week’s absence from Zach Thomas and an 0-3 Dolphins team is desperate for a win that won’t come easily, even if the Raiders are still a sub-par team.

Dolphins squeeze a close victory out at home.

St. Louis Rams at Dallas Cowboys 1:00 PM

I’m not even sure that I need to go too far into detail on this match up. Tony Romo and the Cowboys are on fire, while Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson need someone to light a fire under them. Traveling into Dallas this week, I wouldn’t be looking for any upsets in this match up.

Cowboys continue to improve on an impressive start.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers 4:05 PM

The 49ers looked like they might be one of the surprise teams of the season prior to week 1, but then only made their way to 2-0 by luck with fourth quarter heroics. However, no luck followed them to Pittsburgh last week as Alex Smith and Frank Gore found themselves troubled by the Pittsburgh defense. This week they host Matt Hasselbeck, who is coming off three touchdown passes last week, and Shaun Alexander, who has been averaging 4.2 yards a carry even with a cast around his wrist. But you have to feel that this game could go either way.

Seahawks escape any fourth quarter heroics for a win.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers 4:05 PM

The Buccaneers have defeated the Saints and St. Louis, two teams that were thought to be formidable competitors, but have yet to show why. This week they travel to Carolina to take on the Panthers. Both teams at 2-1, the injury to Jake Delhomme’s elbow could mean bad news for Carolina. This could leave David Carr to try and create chemistry with the phenomenal Steve Smith. I don’t believe I’m sold on the Buccaneers, but this injury could make a huge impact. Buccaneers travel to Carolina this week to test drive the Panthers new Carr.

Buccaneers steal away with a victory.

Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts 4:15 PM

I’ve been dreading this pick. Everyone that knows me knows that I’m a Denver Homer, but I’ve been anything but happy with the Broncos performance this season. Barely winning against the 0-3 Bills, overtime win against the Raiders, and then to be dominated by the run game of Jacksonville gives little hope of walking into the RCA Dome in Indianapolis and defeating Peyton Manning and the Colts. Add an ankle injury to Jay Cutler and a groin injury to John Lynch and Denver could feel an injury impact on both sides of the ball this week. Have no doubt that I will be rooting against my own pick to the very end for a Denver victory in this match up, but…

Colts remain undefeated.

(Now that was a painful pick)

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers 4:15 PM

I don’t think anyone expected to see the Chargers fall to 1-2 at the hands of the Packers last week, but you can’t expect to gut a team’s coaching staff while keeping the teams chemistry into the first few weeks of a new season. This is especially true when the new head coach is Norv Turner. However, the Chiefs haven’t seen their best start to a season either. Place this game in Arrowhead stadium and their might be a question here, but since this game is in San Diego…

Chargers pull their season back up to the .500 mark.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Arizona Cardinals 4:15 PM

Last week Matt Leinart was pulled out of the game and replaced by Kurt Warner. Although Warner made a run for a come back against Baltimore, this creates a quarterback controversy in Arizona right before the undefeated Steelers come into town. This is really bad news when you take into consideration the defensive strengths of Pittsburgh who have only allowed 26 points over the last 3 weeks, the lowest in the league.

Steelers remain among the undefeated.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants 8:15 PM

Both of these teams struggled for two weeks before finally marking up a ‘W’ in the win column. Although the Eagles were able to defeat the previously 2-0 Detroit by 35 points, the Giants pulled an upset against what was considered a formidable defense in Washington who had the best 3^rd down hold percentage in the NFL prior to this loss. So who falters this week? Will Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook continue to light up the score board or will it be Eli Manning and Plaxico Burress? After giving up the second highest points allowed in the NFL (97) will the Giants defense hold this week or does the Giants team implode under the command of Tom Coughlin once again?

Eagles come out on top in this road win.

Monday, October 1, 2007, Monday Night Football

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals 8:30 PM

At this point, many are starting to wonder if there is a team out there that can stop Tom Brady and Randy Moss as they have simply dominated every game so far this season. Include the fact that the Patriots defense has only allowed 35 points this season, and the Bengals defense has given up 95 points (third worst in league), and this game should be a no brainer. Patriot’s defense slows down Carson Palmer and Chad Johnson while Brady and Moss go to town on the Cincinnati score board.

Patriots continue to appear unbeatable.

And that concludes another week of NFL football picks. Only the weekend can tell which picks ring true. Just remember, “If you see a defense team with dirt and mud on their backs they've had a bad day.” – John Madden.

NFL Week 3 ATS

Alright, it’s about that time for the picks ATS. Looks like I improved over my week 1 stats by only one game last week, but its one game in the right direction. So, after going 9-7 last week, my season stats sit at 17-15 (.531) ATS. Really looking to improve on that this week, so let’s give it a shot.

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September 23, 2007

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Indianapolis Colts
Houston Texans +6.5

I called for Houston to win in this match up, but also thought Andre Johnson would be playing, now that he’s not, my confidence level has been shot, but I still expect the Texans to cover.

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San Diego Chargers -6
Green Bay Packers

I expect this game to be LaDainian Tomlinson’s coming out party. We have yet to see him perform to his own standards. If he let’s the Chargers down this weekend, they may be in for a much worse season than predicted. Take the Chargers, give the points.

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Minnesota Vikings +3
Kansas City Chiefs

I know several Chief fans that are very insistent over their home field win record, but have you watched the Chiefs play lately? Vikings defense not only covers this spread for them, but I see a win in their future.

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Detroit Lions +6
Philadelphia Eagles

McNabb and the Eagles are struggling to put it together, while Calvin Johnson and Jon Kitna are making an honest effort at 10+ wins this season. I won’t give them the 10 yet, but I’ll give them 3-0. Lions cover, and I’m going with the straight up win.

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Buffalo Bills
New England Patriots -17

Wow, this seems insane to even consider giving that many points, but the way the Patriots have been playing, it’s almost just as insane not to give them. I would usually never take a spread this wide, but this week I’m taking the Patriots and giving the points.

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Miami Dolphins +3
New York Jets

The Jets aren’t looking as good as they did last year, but neither are the Dolphins. I picture this game being decided on a field goal with the Jets on the victorious side of the kick. With that in mind, the Dolphins cover.

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San Francisco 49ers
Pittsburgh Steelers -9

Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers have been looking pretty sharp while Alex Smith and the 49ers have stumbled to 2-0-0 only by hanging on long enough throughout the game to steal it away in the end. There will be no stealing from the Steelers this week. Take Pittsburgh and give the points.

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Arizona Cardinals +8
Baltimore Ravens

Cardinals were close in week 1 and won in week 2, where the Ravens have won one and lost one by seven points. Eight just seems one number too high for Baltimore. Ravens win, but the Cardinals cover.

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St. Louis Rams +4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Another close match up to call. I have the Buccaneers taking the win this week as they face the Rams, but I’ll take the Rams to cover.

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Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5
Denver Broncos

Once again the Broncos will pull off another close victory, but there are two things to note here: 1) Broncos have won both games on field goals and 2) Broncos are 0-2 ATS. With that said, I’ll take the Broncos to win by a field goal and the Jaguars to cover.

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Cincinnati Bengals
Seattle Seahawks -3

Tough call. I’ve taken the Seahawks to win, but expect a high scoring game. For some reason I just feel this game ends in a Seattle victory by 4. Take the Hawks, give the points.

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Cleveland Browns +3
Oakland Raiders

No, I am most certainly not jumping the Cleveland bandwagon. Last week Derek Anderson and the Browns came together and got hot against a Cincinnati defense that has a lot of holes. Raiders defense is much better, but Cleveland still pulls off the win using a little of that left over spark from last weeks excitement. Browns cover and take the win.

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Carolina Panthers -4
Atlanta Falcons

I can’t wait to see how Byron Leftwich looks behind center in Atlanta, but chances are that’s still several weeks away. Until then, I can’t in good conscience pick Atlanta to do anything but struggle. Panthers take the win, give the points.

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New York Giants +4
Washington Redskins

The Giants haven’t imploded just yet (even if they are 0-2), but with Coughlin at the head of this pack, it’s bound to happen before the end of the season. Eli Manning has had some time to work out his arm a bit and should look to get about half of what he did against Dallas. Derrick Ward has been averaging 6.4 yards a carry in Brandon Jacobs absence, and I’m just not ready to buy into the Redskins defense after watching the Miami receivers shot themselves with dropped balls and McNabb falter away the win with wild passing. Look for the Giants to upset here, so take them to cover.

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Dallas Cowboys +3
Chicago Bears

The Bears did an excellent job stopping San Diego, but Grossman couldn’t keep it together and they lost anyway. Then they contained Larry Johnson on their home turf. So the Bears should hold Tony Romo and Terrell Owens down to a minimum this week, but just like the match up with San Diego, by the final buzzer, Dallas will slip away from them. Take the Cowboys to cover, and I’m calling for the win.

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September 24, 2007 Monday Night Football

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Tennessee Titans +4
New Orleans Saints

Titans are looking a lot like the Falcons did with Vick because Vince Young can scramble and run too. The Tennessee offense is averaging about 211 yards on the ground in their last two games, where the Saints defense has been giving an average 125 yards on the ground. Until the Saints come around and show me that they want to play this year, I just simply can’t give them any confidence. Titans cover as they upset the home crowd in New Orleans.

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NFL Week 3 Picks

Well Week two has come to a close, and we should have all been able to partake in some exciting turns of events. The shocker of the week has to go to the Cincinnati / Cleveland game. Who could have honestly seen that one coming? If you did pick Cleveland to win, I have to believe it was wishful thinking or just flat out hoping for an upset. Did you really feel confidence in that pick? Well, time to move in on.

Welcome to Week 3 of the NFL!!!! Last week I finalized my record by going 10-6 for the second week in a row. That brings my season record to 20 of 32 (.625) or 20-12. Can’t say that it would be a bad season if I continued to go 10-6, but lets see if I can’t improve on that record this week. Alright, so here they are, enjoy!

ALL GAMES ARE EASTERN

Sunday, September 16, 2007

Arizona Cardinals at Baltimore Ravens 1:00 PM

Last week the Ravens Defense almost let New York back into the game during the fourth quarter. Lucky for the Ravens, Ray Lewis wasn’t gonna have it and his INT saved the game from a possible overtime. However, the Ravens weren’t the only team looking to avoid OT last week. Neil Rackers saved the Cardinals from another defeat after they blew their 17-0 lead. This week the teams meet up in Baltimore and the question is…Arizona by a field goal? Or does Baltimore’s defense find another way to deny another team?

Ravens claim their second win of the season.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots 1:00 PM

Belicheat, Patriotgate, I don’t care which name you fancy. Fact is, the Patriots are a winning franchise even under scrutiny. Last week they decided if they couldn’t use a video camera…they would use a copy machine. Week 1 win…38-14, Week 2 win…38-14. Interesting pattern. Let’s face it. If Tom Brady throws for 279 yards and 3 touchdowns, Laurence Maroney and Sammy Morris can combine for 121 rushing yards, and Randy Moss can put up 105 yards and a TD against San Diego….Buffalo doesn’t stand a chance at Foxboro!!!

Patriots win, question is, do they do it 38-14?

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles 1:00 PM

This is one of those games that a week ago I would have chosen the Eagles hands down, but today I really have to wonder, and take a closer look. Donovan McNabb may have been able to throw for 240 yards last week, but he was never able to produce 6 points. Add the fact that several of his throws were badly inaccurate and Philadelphia has a slight quarterback issue. If the Eagles are going to win this week, they need Brian Westbrook to do it for them. So the question here would be, how bad is his knee sprain? I was going to give the Lions five wins this year, but I’m starting to think they may see six. Here’s another upset pick this week, although I’m not really sure we can call it an upset at this point.

Lions pounce on the Eagles while they’re down.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans 1:00 PM

Last week Peyton Manning led his team to victory once again. However, it wasn’t a whopping victory as Vince Young almost led Tennessee on a winning drive near the end of the fourth quarter. This week they travel to Houston to meet up with the 2-0 Texans. Matt Schaub is making an impact behind center this year and between Ahman Green and Ron Dayne Houston has a run game. Add in Andre Johnson (I’m predicting his knee will be fine and he’ll play) down the field to receive the ball and Houston can score. If Mario Williams comes to play this week, we may see one heck of a game. This weeks upset is right here! Colts are a great team, but I think Houston is still being overlooked, and they shouldn’t be.

Houston shocks the NFL starting the season 3-0.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets 1:00 PM

With the likes of Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas on the Dolphins defense, they will always be a unit to watch out for, but when your quarterback throws four interceptions and fumbles a snap, you’re left a little helpless. On the Jets side of the ball, Chad Pennington should be returning for this match up and this game will be held in New York. I haven’t done this since preseason, and even though I’ve mentioned time and again that I’m not a fan, I just think its fun to say. Your winner is....

J.E.T.S., Jets, Jets, Jets!!!

Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs 1:00 PM

The Chiefs have got to win sooner or later don’t they? First they lose to Houston, then Chicago, but both of those teams look pretty good this year. Larry Johnson just needs a defense he can run on! Well, sorry guys, Vikings run defense has been able to hold against the last two match ups and will probably continue to hold at Arrowhead stadium this week too. The way to win this game is through the air. Can Damon Huard or Brodie Croyle pull it off this week?

Vikings add to the Chiefs woes and win in Arrowhead

San Diego Chargers at Green Bay Packers 1:00 PM

Chargers got thumped last week against New England. LaDainian Tomlinson is averaging a mere 1.9 yards per carry, Philip Rivers has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns, and their season sits a .500. Packers, however, delivered their own thumping in New York last week and Brett Favre is leading a 100% winning season this year. Doesn’t that all sound great? Well, considering we’re talking about only two games here, I wouldn’t worry if I were a Chargers fan. Packers are much improved this year and will see the endzone this week, but L.T. is ready to shake off the rust in his wheels.

Chargers finally run up a score board for a win.

San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers 1:00 PM

Ben Roethlisberger has been on his game for two straight weeks and Willie Parker has been giving him the support he needs. Nobody really knows who to cover because Big Ben is sharing the wealth and passing the ball around. What more should be said here? Can Alex Smith, Frank Gore, and the rest of the 49ers come in to Heinz Field and upset the Steelers? Yeah, it’s possible, but not likely.

Steelers bring the hammer down on the 49ers.

St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1:00 PM

Rams showed us how to dominate a game, but lose it on a goof last week as Dante hall muffed a punt to set San Francisco up for the winning field goal. Tampa made us wonder if New Orleans will come to play for any of their games this season. This week the Rams are on the road and the Buccaneers will host another home game. With Jeff Garcia avoiding turnovers and finding Joey Galloway, I expect to see another win in Tampa this week.

Bucs go two in a row at home.

Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks 4:05 PM

Last week Carson Palmer went 33 of 50 for 401 yards and SIX, count ‘em, SIX touchdowns, Rudi Johnson ran for 118 yards, and Chad Johnson had 11 receptions for 209 yards and two touchdowns. What a game! Wait? They lost? What? That’s right. The offense was off the charts, but where was the defense? Knock, knock, nobodies home. Derek Anderson threw for 328 yards and five touchdowns of his own and Jamal Lewis ran for 216 yards and a touchdown against Cincy! This week Shaun Alexander will be running the ball and Matt Hasselbeck will be throwing to Deion Branch and Bobby Engram. Bengals will need to see some defense in order to win this game.

Seahawks take advantage of an absent Cincy Defense

Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders 4:05 PM

Cleveland just upset Cincinnati, and the Raiders ALMOST upset Denver, but in a game of win or lose, almost just doesn’t count. The Raiders defense will keep a better check on Derek Anderson this week, and Jamal Lewis won’t be going for over 200 yards for two weeks in a row. Yes, the Raiders defense is better than Cincinnati’s defense, but that won’t always equal a win. Cleveland should win this one just from the carry over of last week.

Browns take momentum into the ‘Black Hole’ and light it up.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos 4:05 PM

Jacksonville has lost to Tennessee after being devastated on the ground. Then they rebound to win over Atlanta, but not as easily as would be expected. Denver, however, has won both of their last two games on field goals against 0-2 Buffalo and 0-2 Oakland. So neither team is truly impressing anyone at this point. Given that this game is going to be played at Mile High, that Travis Henry has easily made the century mark for two weeks, Javon Walker has broken 100 yards two weeks in a row, and Brandon Marshall has been close being in the chase behind Walker…

Broncos remain undefeated even if it is only by another field goal

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons 4:15 PM

Carolina may have lost to Houston last week, but Houston is looking like a changed team. Jake Delhomme still threw for 316 yards and three touchdowns to Steve Smith who had 153 yards. They did have a little trouble with the run game as DeShaun Foster only ran for 22 yards and a fumble and DeAngelo Williams only had 31 yards. However, Atlanta continues with their woes as well. That said, Carolina will come back this week and take in a ‘W’.

Panthers step next door and steal a win.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins 4:15 PM

The Redskins look like they might have tightened up a few screws in their mechanics. Jason Campbell was able to toss a pass to Chris Cooley for a 16 yard touchdown in the closing seconds of the first half and a second touchdown from Clinton Portis pretty much closed up their game against Philadelphia last week. However, this week they host the Giants. In game one against Dallas, Eli Manning threw up some crazy stats before separating his shoulder. Then in week 2 he played well, but lost to Green Bay. This week I think he’ll be feeling a little more loose in the shoulder and attempt to repeat week 1…without the lose at the end.

Giants travel to Washington to claim their first win.

Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears 8:15 PM

Tony Romo came out on fire in week one against New York, but had smaller numbers against a better defense in Miami. This week Dallas goes on the road to match up with a Chicago defense that was stifling against San Diego (even if they couldn’t escape with the win) and who just shut down Larry Johnson in week 2. Romo and Terrell Owens will give the Bears a run for their money, and this game will be one to tune in to, anyone think Rex Grossman can make it through a game without a turnover? Here’s where I see a problem for Chicago.

Cowboys win turnover battle, win game.

Monday, September 24^th, 2007 MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints 8:30 PM

Give me this game at the start of the season, and I would have had the Saints all the way. Drew Brees torching the Titans secondary, Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush running free through the Tennessee line, and Vince Young getting hammered by the Saints defense, but fast forward two weeks and I’m looking at a completely different game. Vince Young, Chris Brown, and LenDale White are going to attempt a repeat of the Jacksonville game and there will even be some plays through the air to Roydell Williams and Brandon Jones. I’m sorry Saints fans, but until I AT LEAST see a spark of life back in the Saints, they’re digressing back into the ‘Aints.’

Titans take the main stage in Monday Night game.

Two weeks down and Week 3 around the corner. This concludes the picks for Week 3, where do you stand? As Shane Falco would say, “Pain heals. Chicks dig scars. Glory…lasts forever.” Are you ready for some football?

NFL Week 2 ATS

Once again, everyone knows my takes on the outcomes of each of these games by reading my straight up picks. I’ll just make a quick run through of the spread.

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September 16th, 2007

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Buffalo Bills +10
Pittsburgh Steelers
Steelers win, but the Bills don’t roll over. Bills cover.

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Cincinnati Bengals -7.5
Cleveland Browns
Cincinnati to win and give the points, this game will be a runaway early.

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Indianapolis Colts
Tennessee Titans +7.5
Titans were one of the teams to upset the Colts last year, they also looked good on the ground last week. Titans stay in this one and cover.

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Houston Texans +7
Carolina Panthers
Panthers will win, but the Texans are getting better. Houston to cover.

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San Francisco 49ers
St. Louis Rams -3
Rams to win and give the points.

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Green Bay Packers +2
New York Giants
Take the points? Heck, I’ll take the win for the Pack. With or without Eli Manning.

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Atlanta Falcons +10.5
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Falcons may be Vickless, but I don’t think the Jaguars have the offense to run up the score. Take Atlanta to cover.

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New Orleans Saints -4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Saints will redeem themselves this week. Take the win and give the points.

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Minnesota Vikings +3.5
Detroit Lions
I have Detroit to win in this matchup, but the Vikings defense keeps it to a winning field goal. Viking cover.

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Dallas Cowboys -4
Miami Dolphins
After Tony Romo went nuts on the Giants, and the Dolphins lost to Washington…Give the points.

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Seattle Seahawks -3
Arizona Cardinals
Cardinals still just have a way of falling short. Seahawks win, give the points.

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New York Jets +10
Baltimore Ravens
Ravens defense will hold the Jets to a minimum, but their offense won’t run up the score. Take the Jets to cover.

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Oakland Raiders
Denver Broncos -10
Denver had the numbers last week, just not the points. That changes at home this week. Take Denver, give the points.

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Kansas City Chiefs +13
Chicago Bears
Rex Grossman is either really good or good for nothing, you can never tell who will show up. I wouldn’t gamble on a big score, Take the Chiefs to cover.

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San Diego Chargers +4
New England Patriots
Patriots will win, but the Chargers will make it a two minute drill for Tom Brady. Chargers cover.

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September 17, 2007 Monday Night Football

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Washington Redskins +7
Philadelphia Eagles
I would consider this a close match up after watching both teams last week. Eagles win, but the Skins cover.

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And there it is my picks against the spread for week two. Good Luck everyone.

NFL Week 2 Picks

Well Week 1 has already come and gone an we are now full steam into the regular season. How did your teams fair in opening week? With the conclusion of Week 1 my record tallied in at 10-6. Not the greatest record, but respectable. Now that we’ve seen the starters take the field in their first real game and the play was for keeps, I hope to be able to improve on that record here in Week 2. Shall we get started?

ALL TIMES ARE EASTERN

Sunday, Sept. 16

Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars 1:00 pm

Last week, Jacksonville gave up a whopping 282 yards rushing to Tennessee. Chris Brown alone ran for 175 yards. This week Warrick Dunn will test his legs against the Jacksonville D. Watch for the Jaguars to fill their holes and work on their run defense. Without Michael Vick as a threat in the pocket, they’ll be able to focus more on Dunn.

Jacksonville pulls off a close win.

Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers 1:00 pm

The Bills hosted Denver last week only to find defeat in the final seconds of the game thanks to a Jason Elam field goal. The Steelers on the other hand went to town on Cleveland. Ben Roethlisberger threw a career-high four touchdowns and Willie Parker rushed past the 100 yard mark. I wouldn’t be looking for the Bills to dominate in the Steelers house. Get out your ‘terrible towels.’

Steelers will celebrate a home team victory.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns 1:00 pm

You can’t expect to win games with five turnovers and six allowed sacks and that was obvious as the Browns were devastated in last weeks match up with Pittsburgh. The Browns are a mess right now. Romeo Crennel pulled Charlie Frye from the game in the first half for back up Derek Anderson, who did manage one touchdown pass, successfully avoiding a shutout. Add the fan chant for Brady Quinn,…and the Browns have issues.

Bengals will take this game early.

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants 1:00 pm

What do I say about this game? I didn’t give the Packers a chance against Philadelphia. The Giants lost to Dallas, but didn’t fall apart as I felt they would. Both of these teams outperformed my expectation of them in Week 1. Even though one game doesn’t make a changed season, I should take another look at the possibilities of these teams. However, I think a big deciding factor in the outcome of this game is going to be the absence of Eli Manning and possibly even Brandon Jacobs.

Packers start the season 2-0.

Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers 1:00 pm

I have no doubt that the Texans will start to see better days for their franchise. Matt Schaub had a fairly successful evening that included a career-long 77-yard touchdown pass to Andre Johnson, but it was Mario Williams with five tackles and a touchdown off a fumble that really shined. To bad they travel to Carolina this week. Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith can conjure up long touchdown passes of their own, including one for 68 yards against St. Louis.

Panthers pounce on the Texans.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans 1:00 pm

Vince Young and the Titans ran rampant on the Jacksonville defense last week with Chris Brown leading the way, but the Colts showed they can be the run defense most of us thought they weren’t. After keeping the combined rushing yards of Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister well under 100 yards, Joseph Addai gave Peyton Manning all the run support he needed tracking off 118 rushing yards by himself. That left Manning to…well…be Manning, with 288 passing yards and 3 touchdowns.

Colts collect their first road win.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1:00 pm

The Saints found themselves Manning handled last week in Indianapolis as they were completely dominated in the second half of the game. But don’t start calling out the Aints just yet. Even good teams have off weeks and combine that with the dominating force of Peyton Manning and the rest of the defending Super Bowl Champions, and you’d be hard pressed to find a team that wouldn’t have been defeated just the same. It’s time for Drew Brees to get his groove back.

Saints march into Tampa and march out with a win.

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams 1:00 pm

It may have been a mistake for the Rams to give Steven Jackson front row seats from the bench during the preseason because he came out looking a bit cold last week against Carolina. Jackson was only able to gain 58 yards on 18 carries and had some trouble holding onto the ball in the third quarter. However, this week they play at home and against a team that won their last match up by driving for more yards in their final drive than they had accomplished in the entire second half of the game. I expect Jackson to correct his errors this week.

Rams bounce back for a win on their home field.

Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins 4:05 pm

Tony Romo set the field on fire last week torching some yardage on 15 completions on 24 attempts for a hot 345 yards and 4 touchdowns. Add Marion Barbers 65 yards on 11 carries for a touchdown and who cares if the beefed up defense that Wade Philips was suppose to bring didn’t show up. If the Cowboys can keep their offense rolling, I have a hard time believing that Trent Green will keep up as well as Eli Manning did. Miami better hope Jason Taylor’s quad is feeling better by game time if they want to stay in this game.

Tony Romo leads Cowboys to another early victory

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions 4:05 pm

Detroit marked off game number one of the 10 wins promised by Jon Kitna this year and the win didn’t go off without the assistance of their first round draft pick Calvin Johnson who caught 4 passes for 70 yards and a touchdown. It was a good display of offense against a fairly strong Oakland defense. However, Detroit almost let the game slip away from them. This week they face the Vikings defense. A little bit better, but…call me crazy, I’m going to give number two.

Lions win number two as they prepare to overtake last years win record.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals 4:05 pm

Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander’s Seahawk offense got off to a slow start last week against Tampa Bay, but once they settled into the game it was all over. Alexander picked up his slack and rushed for over a hundred yards, and the Seattle defense took the gas out of the Cadillac before moving Jeff Garcia into the breakdown lane. Move this next game into Arizona and I think the Seahawks continue to roll.

Seahawks swoop down on the Cardinals for a win.

Kansas City Chiefs at Chicago Bears 4:15 pm

Ouch!!! Even with Larry Johnson on the field the Chiefs look like you could stick a fork in them. Damon Huard only threw for 168 yards and his receivers had trouble holding on to the ball. Add two interceptions where he wished the defenders hadn’t held on to the ball and Huard wasn’t having his best night. Then you consider that Johnson was only able to rush for 43 yards on 10 carries and now they must travel to Chicago. Facing the devastating Bears defense who, even though they lost, was able to hold last years MVP LaDainian Tomlinson to a mere 25 rushing yards and one touchdown should have Chief fans worried.

Bears claim their first victory.

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens 4:15 pm

No one can say that the Ravens should have won in their match up against Cincinnati last week, but it’s a shame that a bad offensive pass interference call overturned a touchdown that should have tied the game, and it seems fitting that a turnover finalized it. Baltimore can’t afford to make that many mistakes two weeks in a row, and the Jets could steal a win if they do. Baltimore’s defense will come ready to play, and their offense should return to the ground game that they’re more successful at.

Ravens bounce back from a disappointing loss last week.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos 4:15 pm

Although the scoreboard in Buffalo showed a one point victory for Denver in the final seconds of the game, some numbers tell another story. Jay Cutler completed 23/39 passes for 304 yards and a touchdown, Travis Henry rushed for 139 yards, and Javon Walker caught 9 passes for 119 receiving yards. Broncos owned total yards, 470-184, first downs, 23-13, and had six minutes of additional possession time. Sure they need some fine tuning, but they ARE capable.

Broncos defend their home field from the Raiders.

San Diego Chargers at New England Patriots 8:15 pm

Last week I took the unpopular pick of Chicago edging past the Chargers. Although it looked like I had the right idea around half-time, too many turnovers defeated the Bears. You simply can’t give a team as good as San Diego that many opportunities. So how do you pick against L.T. two weeks in a row without looking insane? You send him and his team mates into Foxborough to face off against Tom Brady and the Patriots. Everyone needs to tune into this match up, a tough game against tough competitors, this game will be a nail biter. Anybody think the Patriots will get some extra film of San Diego?

Patriots pull off the victory at home.

Monday, Sep. 17

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles 8:30 pm

Last week I took Philly to win over Green Bay and Washington to fall to the defensive strengths of Miami…I was wrong on both counts by field goals. This week these teams match up and I find that I’m unimpressed with Donavan McNabb’s 45% completion percentage, or Jason Campbell’s two interceptions. Clinton Portis showed he was still a capable running back with 98 yards on 17 carries and a touchdown, but Brian Westbrook had 131 yards of combined rushing and receiving without the touchdown. Last week I liked the Eagles, this week I’ll settle for the home team.

Eagles win a game in front of their home crowd.

And that’s going to wrap up another week of picks. Do you agree? Disagree?

NFL Week 1 ATS

Unfortunately I have found myself pressed for time this week, I only hope life doesn’t continue to be this hectic. Most of my straight up picks give my thoughts on the game, so I’m just going to run through the spread quickly. Here we go.

Thursday, September 06, 2007

New Orleans Saints +6
Indianapolis Colts
Colts defense will allow the Saints to keep this game close, Saints cover
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Sunday, September 09, 2007

Atlanta Falcons
Minnesota Vikings +3
Vikings defense will hold Atlanta, I’m taking the points and the Viking win
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Carolina Panthers
St Louis Rams pk
In an even line, Rams take the win
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Denver Broncos -3.5
Buffalo Bills
Broncos could take this game giving 6 points. I take Denver.
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Kansas City Chiefs +3
Houston Texans
Tough call, Texans win, but the Chiefs cover
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Miami Dolphins +3
Washington Redskins
Just based on the Dolphin defense I take the Phins to cover
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New England Patriots
New York Jets +6.5
I have the Patriots to win this game, but the Jets will surprise them and cover
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Philadelphia Eagles -3
Green Bay Packers
I’ll take the Eagles and give the points
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Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5
Cleveland Browns
Against Cleveland I would certainly give the points
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Tennessee Titans +6.5
Jacksonville Jaguars
I’ve picked the Jaguars to win this game, but not by much. Titans cover
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Chicago Bears +6
San Diego Chargers
And this seems to be one of my most controversial picks, I have the Bears winning this game, so of course they cover
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Detroit Lions +1.5
Oakland Raiders
Take the Lions to cover, this is one of there few wins this season
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Seattle Seahawks -6
With Hasselbeck and Alexander healthy, give the points
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New York Giants
Dallas Cowboys -6
With the way Couglin ran this team last year…give the points

Monday, September 10, 2007
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Baltimore Ravens +3
Cincinnati Bengals
A great match up between offense and defense, Ravens cover
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Arizona Cardinals
San Francisco 49ers -3
49ers will be an improved team this year. Give the points and take the Niners

NFL Week 1 Picks

Preseason is finally over, and it time to start picking the real games. Just for the final count, I finished up Week 4 of the preseason on a high note with a record of 11-5. That bumped my preseason picks over .500. The final tally came to 35 of 64 or 35-29 (.547). But that doesn’t really matter, nothing in preseason does, so let’s move on to the regular season!!!! I don’t even want to waste anymore time getting this started, so here they are, my Week 1 picks. Let’s get this season started!!!

ALL TIMES ARE EASTERN

Thursday, Sept. 6th

New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts (8:30 PM)

This game is a match up many of us would have loved to see in last years’ Super Bowl, but I think the end-result would have been the same. The Saints are going to be stepping onto the Colts home field and facing the mad skills of Peyton Manning. Drew Brees and company put up a good fight, but there's no upset brewing here. Colts win hands down.
Colts kick their season off with a win.

Sunday, Sept. 9th

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (1:00 PM)
Life without Vick will be difficult on the Falcons. Michael Vick made everyone on that team better just by being present. He offered an element to the offense that kept opposing defenses honest. So to move forward without him this year is going to be a true test of Atlanta's talent. We'll have to keep an eye out here, but I don't think I see things going well for the Falcons this year.
Minnesota manages to slip through with a win.

Carolina Panthers at St. Louis Rams (1:00 PM)

Carolina is going to have a decent year, but it won’t start here. I can't say for sure just how much juice Isaac Bruce still has in the tank, but Steven Jackson is sure to burn some of the thread of his tires. Expect a close game, a nail biter if you will, but the Rams put the last points on the board to steal away with the win.
Rams benefit from home field advantage.

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (1:00 PM)

Cutler is going to open up the season with a bang and Javon Walker will be his gun powder. Travis Henry isn't going to show any problems with that knee, in fact, he'll feel like he’s running free lined up behind the Denver O-line. Top that off with Denver’s newest tandem at cornerback, Dre Bly and Champ Bailey, and this defense will smother the Bills’ offense.
Broncos batter the Bills.

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (1:00 PM)

There were moments during this preseason that you could almost feel some hope for Houston this year. However, Kansas City kept you guessing over whether or not they wanted to play this year. I'd look for Larry Johnson to mark several yards on the Texan defense, but Matt Schaub is going to make Atlanta sorry they let him go. I think we're going to start seeing some chemistry between Schaub and Andre Johnson this week.
Texans give Houston a reason to celebrate

Miami Dolphins at Washington Redskins (1:00 PM)

I’m not sure we are ready to witness a huge season from the Miami Dolphins, but we will see their moments. Just as their defense stepped up to win games last year, we can expect big things from Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor this year as well. Add Trent Green behind center…and the Dolphins pull a victory out in Washington.
Miami upsets the Redskins at home.

New England Patriots at New York Jets (1:00 PM)
I’m not convinced that the Patriots have built a super team in the off-season. Looking good on paper and playing good on the field are two different things. They will be a playoff team this year, but won’t go undefeated. However, defeat doesn’t come at the hands of the Jets. Tom Brady will lead his team to another victory, and I don’t think Moss will be as big an impact as many seem to think.
Patriots defeat the Jets.

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (1:00 PM)

What can I say? Green Bay may have had some moments in the preseason, but I don't see a better than average year for the Packers. Brett Favre is getting past his prime and I don’t believe the Packers did enough to strengthen the team around him. Green Bay just doesn't have what it takes to defeat the Eagles this week.
Eagles start season with a bang.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (1:00 PM)
As long as Big Ben Roethlisberger can stay healthy this year, I expect that he will get Pittsburgh back on the list as one of the top competitive teams in the league again. Combine that with the stout Steelers defense and you’ve got a winning combination.
Steelers dominate on Browns home field.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (1:00 PM)
To be honest with you…I found this one to be a tough pick. I think Vince Young could be great, but do we believe in the Madden Cover curse? It has been a hard phenomenon to ignore. That aside, I’m going to have to say the Jaguars defense holds to win the game in a tight battle.
Jacksonville edges over the Titans.

Chicago Bears at San Diego Chargers (4:15 PM)
I’m not saying the Chargers are doomed this year. LaDainian Tomlinson can only be stopped by an injury. However, the coaching staff for this team has been gutted, and I expect to see some growing pains. Chicago steps into San Diego and claws their way to a win.
Chargers start season with woes, Bears win.

Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders (4:15 PM)
Looks like it's time to see if Jon Kitna can make good on his promise of 10+ wins this season!!! I’ll give them this game against Oakland, the black hole as been looking pretty bright for opposing teams lately, but don’t look for a play-off season from Detroit this year. I expect Kitna will be avoiding replays of that discussion by mid-season.
Lions start their win streak.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks (4:15 PM)
With Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander both healthy for game one, I expect them to get the season underway in a positive direction. Tampa won’t make it easy, but given good health and home field, the Seahawks start this season 1-0.
Seattle gets off to a good start.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (8:15 PM)
No more Tiki? No problem. Brandon Jacobs should be set to have a good year this year. Expect him to add some yardage along side his touchdown totals this year. However, Eli Manning will continue to be over-shadowed by his big brother, and I see very little mutual respect and chemistry flowing through this team starting with Tom Coughlin. His failure to control this team last year will surely continue to haunt him this season, especially after a few losses and I'm going to say the first loss comes here.
Dallas opens Sunday night with a bang.

Monday, Sept. 10th

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (7:00 PM)
Expect this to be a good Offense VS Defense match up…with the defense coming out on top. I expect Carson Palmer to come out firing with Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh eager to be on the receiving end, but Ray Lewis and the Baltimore defense has been a stingy bunch. I expect that to carry over into game one of this new season.
Ravens wreak havoc in Cincy.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (10:15 PM)
I’m looking to see improvement this year in San Francisco and Arizona just seems to be the team that can never get it all together. So, with that thought in mind, and given that the home field advantage goes to the 49ers….I’m taking the 49ers to win a close contest.
49ers hold down the home front

And with that, I bring a conclusion to the picks for Week 1. I was able to finish off the preseason on a high note, and only hope to continue with greater accuracy throughout the season, so let’s get ready for some football!!!