Thursday, November 29, 2007

NFL Week 13 Thursday ATS

The start of the Thursday night game can really sneak up on a person’s scheduling habits. With the kickoff less than two hours off, I really think that I need to get my spread pick on the board. So here it goes. The rest of the week will follow later.

Green Bay Packers +7
Dallas Cowboys

All the angles have been discussed. How will the Packers fair if Charles Woodson isn’t ready to play? Brett Favre is winless in Dallas. Can the Packers continue to improve their run game? Can their defense hold the Marion Barber? Contain Tony Romo? Cover Terrell Owens? Do the Cowboys have an answer for Favre? Can they keep him below 300+ passing yards? Questions, Questions, Questions. The answers will be given tonight during the game, but until then, I’m predicting a close game, one that comes within 7 points. For that, I’ll take the Packers and the points, but I’m also predicting a straight out Green Bay win. It’s gonna be cold in Lambeau Field during the playoffs!!

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

NFL Week 13 Picks

If you’re going to go down, go down in style! Well, I don’t know how much style I did it in, but I did go down, only Miami saved me from falling below the .500 mark…at your expense, I thank you guys! I think this week emphasized the fact that there is no such thing as a sure thing as we watched Eli Manning literally throw away any chance New York had to win, San Francisco found a way to sweep Arizona in both of their match ups, Devin Hester fueled a fire that started a comeback victory in a game the should have been lost, and A.J. Feeley came one ill-decided pass away from the biggest upset of the season. Of course I wasn’t satisfied with the drama the NFL dished out this week so I added my own by picking upsets that only upset me. Houston couldn’t get it done, Tennessee fell short, Washington lost the intensity they brought to Dallas, and Baltimore couldn’t carry the intensity that almost won them the game the week before. All that and I finish the week with the weak and feeble record of 8-8, and a season total of 108-68 (.614). This week SCREAMS from improvement, so lets get the show on the road!

ALL TIMES ARE EASTERN

Thursday, November 29 2007

Green Bay Packers(10-1) at Dallas Cowboys(10-1) 8:15PM

What a match up, what a game! To bad it will be aired on NFL Network!!! What a rip off! Local fans in Green Bay and Dallas without NFL Network won’t even be able to watch this game without a ticket, and I’m expecting one hard fought match. Brett Favre is having the season of a career, and it’s been a long career at that. Tony Romo is still fresh and new to the league, but has numbers of his own to back the talk the Cowboys are talking. Such a hard call, such a great match up, and most of the “experts” are literally giving this to the home team. I can’t say how many times I’ve heard “I’m taking Dallas, but it this game was at Lambeau…,” well I’m not waiting for the rematch in Lambeau, I’m taking the upset early this week. Game One, Thursday night, the Packers will travel to Dallas and upset the Cowboys.

Packers in the upset!

Sunday, December 2 2007

Atlanta Falcons(3-8) at St. Louis Rams(2-9) 1:00PM

Both of these teams have suffered from injuries and bad seasons. Now they match up while the Rams have started to pick up some steam. With Steven Jackson back in the backfield, Marc Bulger and Gus Frerotte have been finding time to breath and the Rams have marked up two wins and a near miss on the third. Joey Harrington will be leading the Falcons into this game with hopes of taking advantage of the less than stellar Rams defense. It could be a close game, but I’m going with the home team for this match up.

Rams get back on a winning track.

Buffalo Bills(5-6) at Washington Redskins(5-6) 1:00PM

Two weeks ago the Skins showed a spark of life as they challenged Dallas and put up a brutal fight just short of the win. But Jason Campbell and Clinton Portis couldn’t get it done then, and then fell short in Tampa the following week. Now they’ll host the Bills who have just switched back to Trent Edwards after J.P. Losman couldn’t find a way to get it done against Jacksonville. I originally wanted the Bills here, but the more I think of it, the more I want the home team in a match up like this.

Redskins secure a home win.

Detroit Lions(6-5) at Minnesota Vikings(5-6) 1:00PM

Jon Kitna better get back on the winning side of the scoreboard if he intends on making good on his promise of 10 wins this season. With only 5 games left to go and 4 wins short of 10 it’s starting to look a little hopeless. But don’t worry, as long as Kitna spends plenty of time watching Eli’s film on how NOT to be an NFL quarterback he might be able to hold the Minnesota defense scoreless. If Kitna and the Lions can accomplish that, they may have a shot at out scoring the possible return of Adrian Peterson.

Lions find a way to add another win on the season.

Houston Texans(5-6) at Tennesse Titans(6-5) 1:00PM

Both of these teams let me down last week. The only difference is that Matt Schaub and company didn’t get blown out in the fashion that Vince Young and the Titans did. Andre Johnson should be good and warmed up by this point as the Titans seem to be in a back pedal. I think this match up is going to end with Tennessee and Houston switching places on the AFC South rankings.

Texans find victory on the road.

Jacksonville Jaguars(8-3) at Indianapolis Colts(9-2) 1:00PM

In the first meeting of these to teams Jacksonville hosted and the Colts made themselves more than comfortable in the Jaguars house in a 29-7 victory for Indy. However, I believe that this match up will have a different air about it. David Garrard and his running tandem of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew haven’t been slouching this season and with the Colts still suffering from injuries I think an upset may be in the works. Even with the possibility of Peyton Manning welcoming the return of his favorite receiver Marvin Harrison, there is the possibility Harrison will be rusty. Nope, I’m going to have to go with a second upset this week.

Jaguars return the favor and upset Indy at home.

New York Jets(2-9) at Miami Dolphins(0-11) 1:00PM

The Dolphins have to win at some point don’t they? And after another heartbreaking three point loss in the final seconds to Pittsburgh in last weeks 0-3 Mud Bowl, this game should be their closest thing to hope. So here’s what I see, neither team has a hope nor a prayer for a playoff and Miami is desperate not to be a shut out on the season. With John Beck at the lead, and the hopes of a healthier Jesse Chatman or Ricky Williams, the Dolphins sneak their only chance at a win.

Dolphins find their one and only win.

San Diego Chargers(6-5) at Kansas City Chiefs(4-7) 1:00PM

The Chargers are back! What happened to the Chargers? Oops, their back again. No wait, what happened to them in that game? OK, their back again. Yup, it’s been quite the rollercoaster season for the Chargers and their fans, but in a rivalry match up against a struggling Chiefs team that has lost their magic in Arrowhead; I can only expect a big game from Philip Rivers and LaDainian Tomlinson. Add the receptive abilities of Antonio Gates and the defensive threat in Shawne Merriman and the outcome looks bleak for the Chiefs. However, let’s not forget…”Any Given Sunday.”

Chargers add to the woes of Arrowhead

Seattle Seahawks(7-4) at Philadelphia Eagles(5-6) 1:00PM

OK, I’m just going to admit to falling into this trap right up front and center. Last week Washington played a ferocious game against Dallas, but flopped in the following week when I expected them to win and now I’m looking follow the same logic in this match up. How can the Eagles play such a tough game against undefeated New England then lose to Seattle in the following week? I have to think the team that can rise up in Foxboro and give New England a run for their money can win at home against the not so hot Seahawks…can’t wait to find out.

Eagles carry last weeks fight into this week’s victory.

San Francisco 49ers(3-8) at Carolina Panthers(4-7) 1:00PM

Um,…uh,…I don’t know? How about…

The 4thers defeat the Pan9ers?

OK, so neither of these teams has been spectacular this year. Both have only mustered up one pair of back-to-back wins. That gives me two forms of logic to work with: 1) The 49ers just won a game and the odds of second, back-to-back win is unlikely and 2) the Panthers have the home field advantage where they’ve won…OH GREAT! The Panthers haven’t won a home game all season!!! Where’s my coin? Do I have to flip? Nah, I’m just going to cross my fingers and say…

Panthers find their first home win of the season.

Cleveland Browns(7-4) at Arizona Cardinals(5-6) 4:05PM

Kurt Warner has been able to lead the Cardinals to a couple of wins this season, and Edgerrin James hasn’t been a stranger to the end zone, but this week they get to welcome the Browns to their home field. Cleveland’s defense will be more than friendly enough to give way for a few Cardinal touchdowns, but the chances are pretty good that the Derek Anderson / Braylon Edwards connection with get more. Add one on the ground, courtesy of Jamal Lewis and the Browns will continue to roll in their pursuit to over take Pittsburgh for the AFC North.

Browns remain in the hunt for their division

Denver Broncos(5-6) at Oakland Raiders(3-8) 4:05PM

Jay Cutler is settling in behind the center in Denver as his numbers continue to rise, and the Broncos offensive line continues to prove they can pave the way for any of their running backs whether it’s Travis Henry, Selvin Young, or Andre Hall as Hall filled in last week like he had been their all season. Now if only Denver’s defense could find a way to preserve a winning lead. OK, so not all the blame can go to defense. Special teams could use some work too, Devin Hester or not! Lucky for the Broncos, the Raiders don’t have an offense or a great return man.

Broncos light up the Black Hole.

New York Giants(7-4) at Chicago Bears(5-6) 4:15PM

Oh boy. Where should I go here? Battle of the interception prone quarterbacks? OK, I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that in no way will Eli Manning repeat the AWFUL performance he had last week. He couldn’t possibly do it two weeks in a row…could he? On a brighter note for the Giants, the Bears defense isn’t nearly as dominating as they were last year. So with all that said, Plaxico Burress continues to push through the pain, Jeremy Shockey continues to be Shockey, and the Giants defense hurries Rex Grossman into a few mistakes.

Giants manage a road win.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers(7-4) at New Orleans Saints(5-6) 4:15PM

New Orleans started out the season on shaky ground and has already traveled to Tampa for a loss this season. Since then, Tampa managed a fairly decent season and currently controls the NFC South. However, this week the match up will take place in the Superdome in New Orleans and Drew Brees will hope to energize the home crowd with the help of Marques Colston and Reggie Bush. Brees and the Saints will be looking to erase the memory of their last home game against St. Louis with a reenactment of their match up vs. Jacksonville.

Saints march this one in for the upset.

Sunday, December 2 2007 Sunday Night Football

*Note: Sunday night games in Weeks 11-17 subject to change.

Cincinnati Bengals(4-7) at Pittsburgh Steelers(8-3) 8:15PM

I think I’ve found myself torn on more games this week than I have all season. I look at the records of these teams and think that I should be taking the Steelers for a win hands down, but after their last two match ups against the Jets and Miami…well, we all know the Bengals have the power to run up a scoreboard. I want to pick the Steelers, especially at home. OK, here’s where I’m going to go with this one. Steelers have had their two in a row glitch and yet they have remained undefeated at home. This is the week they bounce back and put the points up on the board.

Steelers rebound two tough weeks with a home win.

Monday, December 3 2007 Monday Night Football

New England Patriots(11-0) at Baltimore Ravens(4-7) 8:30PM

The Patriots have shown they have a weakness, and had it not been for an ill-thought throw from A.J. Feeley in the finally minutes of last weeks game they may not have been coming into this match up undefeated. Now they travel to Baltimore were Tom Brady is sure to still be rattled from the week before and Randy Moss will be throwing a tantrum over his less than great week. The defense will cry like babies and Belichick will get caught cheating again as the Ravens go on to victory…

OK folks, let’s get real here, it ain’t happening!!!

Patriots answer last weeks close call with a blow-out on Monday Night.

There you have it. Another conclusion to the weekly picks of hard hitting, bloodied, smash-mouth football. On the field, all is fair in love and football. Bo Jackson said it best, “If my mother put on a helmet and shoulder pads and a uniform that wasn't the same as the one I was wearing, I'd run over her if she was in my way. And I love my mother."

Saturday, November 24, 2007

NFL Week 12 ATS

Last week proved to be a good week as I finished with a 10-4-2 record. That’s a number any betting man would be happy to have had in Vegas, although 16-0 would have been sweeter. However, these lines are made to increase the difficulty of obtaining such numbers. Having gone 2-1 on the Thanksgiving Day games this week, I’m already short the perfect week, let’s hope this week end proves better than 2-to-1.

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Sunday, November 25, 2007

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Tennessee Titans -2
Cincinnati Bengals

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Buffalo Bills
Jacksonville Jaguars -8.5

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Oakland Raiders +5.5
Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs will finally get another win in Arrowhead Stadium, but only by a field goal.

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Houston Texans +3.5
Cleveland Browns

I believe this game is an upset in the making. Houston travels to Cleveland, covers and wins.

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Seattle Seahawks -3
St. Louis Rams

The Rams looked good in their win over New Orleans, and then barely defeated San Francisco. Seahawks may not be at the top of their game, but give the points.

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Minnesota Vikings
New York Giants -7.5

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New Orleans Saints -3
Carolina Panthers

Panthers are struggling to hold on to what record they have. Give the points.

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Washington Redskins +3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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San Francisco 49ers
Arizona Cardinals -11

Seems like a lot, but the Cardinals let the first match up slip away from them in the fourth quarter. They won’t make that mistake again.

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Denver Broncos +1
Chicago Bears

It doesn’t matter who’s running behind the Denver line, they’ll make their yards. Add the return of Javon Walker and Jay Cutler should be looking at another great game.

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Baltimore Ravens +9
San Diego Chargers

I’ve picked the Ravens to upset this match up. Of course there is always the possibility that the Superchargers could reappear at this game. Who knows, they’re unpredictable this year.

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Sunday, November 25, 2007 Sunday Night Football

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Philadelphia Eagles
New England Patriots -24.5

This line keeps giving more and more points every time I look at it, but what can you do? The Patriots are 9-1 against the spread, have beaten most of their opponents by more than 20 points, and Donovan McNabb will be on the bench. Throw up your hands and give the points.

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Monday, November 26, 2007 Monday Night Football

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Miami Dolphins ­+16.5
Pittsburgh Steelers

No upset here, but even though the Dolphins are 0-10, five of those losses were only by three points. The Dolphins will go 0-11, but they will beat the spread.

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And that will wrap up the Week 12 picks against the spread. Hope everyone had a happy Thanksgiving holiday. Let’s get on with some more football!!!

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

NFL Week 12 Thanksgiving ATS

I’m not going to attempt to pick all the spreads this early in the week. Here are my picks for Turkey Day, the rest will follow later in the week.

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Thursday, November 22, 2007 THANKSGIVING DAY GAMES

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Green Bay Packers -4
Detroit Lions

Detroit has a habit of playing well on Thanksgiving day even when they are an awful team, so this was actually a hard pick to make, but I think Favre and the Packers prevail by 5 at the least.

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New York Jets
Dallas Cowboys -14.5

Jets had their day in the sun last week when they defeated Pittsburgh. Dallas has been much more consistent this year and won’t be giving the Jets an opportunity to be in this game.

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Indianapolis Colts
Atlanta Falcons +13

Colts are simply too banged up and playing like it. Peyton Manning will continue to hold this team together for the win, but I simply can’t give that many points.

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The rest of the week will follow later. Happy Thanksgiving everyone and enjoy your turkey and football!!!

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

NFL Week 12 Picks

Last week was a good week for me. I finished 13-3, and considering that one of those losses was the shocking upset of Pittsburgh I don’t feel to bad about it. This week I will look to add on to that record and attempt the 16-0 week. So with not further delay, here it goes, Week 12.

Last weeks numbers:

13-3

Season Total, 100-60 (.625)

ALL TIMES ARE EASTERN

Thursday, November 22, 2007

Green Bay Packers(9-1) at Detroit Lions(6-4) 12:30PM

The Lions have lost the magic of home field and Brett Favre and company are continuing to roll strong. Their defense looks good and they’ve been able to pound out a run game recently. Packers are going to prove to be too much for Detroit.

Packers

New York Jets(2-8) at Dallas Cowboys(9-1) 4:15PM

Jets got lucky last week. They showed some will and determination by upsetting Pittsburgh, but Pittsburgh has had other hiccups this season, the Cowboys haven’t. I see no way that the Jets can repeat last week’s performance two weeks in a row.

Cowboys

Indianapolis Colts(8-2) at Atlanta Falcons(3-7) 8:15PM

I’m itching to pick the Falcons to upset the Colts this week, but just can’t bring myself to do it. The Colts are battered and beaten down and Peyton Manning is struggling to keep things afloat until some of their injured can return to the line up, but somehow I don’t think the Falcons will be able to take advantage of this opportunity.

Colts

Sunday, November 25, 2007

Buffalo Bills(5-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars(7-3) 1:00PM

Buffalo has had their hot streak, but was recently slammed earth bound in their match up against New England. This week they will look to rebound from that demoralizing humiliation, but I don’t think the Jaguars will be willing to comply.

Jaguars

Houston Texans(5-5) at Cleveland Browns(6-4) 1:00PM

I expect this to be a good match up, and given that the Browns are the home team I’m guessing that many people will probably disagree with me on this pick, but I just have a feeling the after Matt Schaub finally got Andre Johnson back that this team is going to attempt to make a run in order to get back into the playoff hunt.

Texans

Minnesota Vikings(4-6) at New York Giants(7-3) 1:00PM

Adrian Peterson out? Not a problem for the Vikings. Chester Taylor picked up the slack. However, I have a hard time thinking the Vikings will be able to repeat such a run offense against the Giants.

Giants

New Orleans Saints(4-6) at Carolina Panthers(4-6) 1:00PM

This is the week the Saints come marching back in, and yes, they do it on the road. I don’t think the Panthers will pressure Drew Brees in the way that Mario Williams did and Reggie Bush should find some running room.

Saints

Oakland Raiders(2-8) at Kansas City Chiefs(4-6) 1:00PM

As a Denver fan I wish that both of these teams could lose this weekend, but if I had to choose, I would choose the Chiefs to lose and widen the gap between these two teams and Denver. Unfortunately, the 12th man of Arrowhead must regain its advantage at some time and what better time than now. I don’t see a Raiders road win.

Chiefs

Seattle Seahawks(6-4) at St. Louis Rams(2-8) 1:00PM

After the big win against New Orleans I might have picked the Rams to win at home in this match up, but after only being able to muster 13 points against San Francisco I’m thinking the New Orleans game must have been a fluke. Seattle has been on a little roll of their own and will continue this week.

Seahawks

Tennessee Titans(6-4) at Cincinnati Bengals(3-7) 1:00PM

This game is going to come down to the Bengals defense again. If the Titans can run the ball all day long and take the pressure off Vince Young then I think they will prevail in the end. Carson Palmer and his receiving core will have very little time on the field as the Titans control the game and the clock.

Titans

Washington Redskins(5-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers(6-4) 1:00PM

The Redskins came out hard and played a good game against NFC leading Dallas. If they can carry over some of that intensity into this match up, they will topple the Buccaneers and regain some of their footing.

Redskins

San Francisco 49ers(2-8) at Arizona Cardinals(5-5) 4:05PM

Arizona outplayed the 49ers in their first match up of the season but failed to put the game away. Missed opportunities and not putting the nail in the coffin when they had the chance let the 49ers accomplish a fourth quarter comeback to win the game. This week the Cardinals won’t make the same mistake and will take the lead early, never looking back.

Cardinals

Baltimore Ravens(4-6) at San Diego Chargers(5-5) 4:15PM

I had originally picked the Chargers to win in this match up that will be played on their own field, but after the Ravens managed a comeback that almost proved victorious last week against Cleveland I’ve changed my mind. I’ll admit this game could go either way depending on which version of which team chooses to show up.

Ravens

Denver Broncos(5-5) at Chicago Bears(4-6) 4:15PM

Excluding the glitch against Detroit, the Broncos have been continuously improving since there bye week including a close but overtime lose to a fantastic Green Bay team. This week they will take to the road for Chicago to take on the Bears who have given Rex Grossman his starting position back. No matter. Grossman or Brian Griese, the Broncos will look to increase their interception numbers as Jay Cutler continues to grow as a potentially great NFL quarterback…what an arm!!!

Broncos

Sunday, November 25, 2007, Sunday Night Football

*Note: Sunday night games in Weeks 11-17 subject to change

Philadelphia Eagles(5-5) at New England Patriots(10-0) 8:15PM

The spread on this match up, last I heard has already been pushed to 22 points being given by the Patriots and the Patriots are 9-1 against the spread this year. If that’s any indication on how this game will play out then I may be in bed before halftime.

Patriots

Monday, November 26, 2007, Monday Night Football

Miami Dolphins(0-10) at Pittsburgh Steelers(7-3) 8:30PM

This SHOULD be another open and shut game, but after the defeat that Pittsburgh suffered last week you can almost put a question mark here. A lot of the Dolphins losses have been by only three points. That means they haven’t been blown out and have only failed to finish out a game. However, I think the Steelers will show up to this game with something to prove. Dolphins desperately need a win, but Steelers desperately need to redeem themselves.

Steelers

And thus concludes another week of NFL picks. Last week I came closer to the elusive 16-0 week so I can only continue to chase it. Now I will leave you with this reflection of women and football. “The reason women don’t play football is because eleven of them would never wear the same outfit in public.” –Comedian Phyllis Diller

Saturday, November 17, 2007

NFL Week 11 ATS

Last week was a bit unpredictable as the “Any Given Sunday” phenomena reared its head. However, through it all I managed to hold on to an above .500 week. Not the big money maker, but nothing lost. Finishing 7-6-1 on the week, I can only hope to improve this week.

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Sunday, November 18, 2007
1:00 Games

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San Diego Chargers
Jacksonville Jaguars -3

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Kansas City Chiefs +15
Indianapolis Colts
I just can’t give up that many points. Not with the number of injuries the Colts have.

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Oakland Raiders +5
Minnesota Vikings

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Cleveland Browns -3
Baltimore Ravens

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3
Atlanta Falcons

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Arizona Cardinals +3.5
Cincinnati Bengals
I see an upset here. Cardinals get the straight up win.

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Miami Dolphins +10
Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles haven’t been consistent and Miami might find hope in John Beck.

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New Orleans Saints
Houston Texans (Pick)

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Carolina Panthers
Green Bay Packers -10
A lot of points, but Favre is leading strong this year.

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New York Giants
Detroit Lions +3

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4:00 Games

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Pittsburgh Steelers -10
New York Jets

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Washington Redskins
Dallas Cowboys -11.5
Another large spread and being a division game this one has me nervous, but I’ll go ahead and give the points.

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St. Louis Rams -3
San Francisco 49ers
I don’t know whether I think the Rams are better for the return of Steven Jackson, or the Niners are just that bad. Either way, give the points.

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Chicago Bears
Seattle Seahawks -5.5
I think this will be a fairly even played game, but the Hawks will finish with a TD win.

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Sunday, November 18, 2007 Sunday Night Football

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New England Patriots -16.5
Buffalo Bills
Patriots are 8-1 ATS this year, only failing to cover in the Indy match up. Give the points!

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Monday, November 19, 2007 Monday Night Football

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Tennessee Titans
Denver Broncos -2

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And that concludes another week of spread picks. Good Luck to everyone.

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

NFL Week 11 Picks

It seems parity ran rich through the NFL in week 10. Arizona defeated Detroit in a game of turnovers, St. Louis completely demolished New Orleans, and Peyton Manning threw 6 interceptions and still almost won the game except for a 29 yard field goal miss by Adam Vinatieri.

Through it all I managed to maintain an above .500 week, finishing 8-6 for a season total of 87-57 (.604). This week just goes to show that there is no such thing as a sure thing in the NFL. That’s why we love this sport! So with that, let’s get on with the Week 11 Picks!

ALL TIMES ARE EASTERN

Sunday, November 18, 2007

Arizona Cardinals(4-5) at Cincinnati Bengals(3-6) 1:00 PM

Carson Palmer and the Cincinnati offense still have the talent to put numbers up on the board, but their defense has more holes than Swiss cheese and don’t point to the mere seven points allowed Baltimore last week, they couldn’t run up a score against a 1A High School team. Kurt Warner should be able to toss the ball around yard for yard with Palmer and I see the Cardinals winning the turnover stats

Cardinals take a victory on the road.

Carolina Panthers(4-5) at Green Bay Packers(8-1) 1:00 PM

The Panthers are continuing to struggle in the quarterback position with Jake Delhomme out, David Carr hurting again, and Vinny Testaverde’s body showing the aches and pains of age. Run that out on the road and send them to Green Bay against Brett Favre and I only see this match up going one way.

Packers continue to win, why does it feel like they are still under the radar?

Cleveland Browns(5-4) at Baltimore Ravens(4-5) 1:00 PM

The Browns allowed Pittsburgh to come back for the win last week, but this week they take on the Ravens. Derek Anderson and Braylon Edwards have got chemistry and, with Jamal Lewis in the mix, this offense can put points on a scoreboard. This will be unfortunate for a Ravens defense that hasn’t fallen, but does lack the intensity of former years. Add the inability of Steve McNair to end a drive in the end zone and this game should be obvious

Browns rebound after failing to hold lead last week

Kansas City Chiefs(4-5) at Indianapolis Colts(7-2) 1:00 PM

Peyton Manning was extremely uncharacteristic last week throwing 6 interceptions and really failing the Colts in many ways. So for the Colts to almost return for a win shows that they won’t hang their heads and go away, It just a shame that Adam Vinatieri couldn’t rescue this team by making a 29 yard field goal. Both these teams come into this match up after back-to-back losses. Whether Damon Huard returns or Brodie Croyle starts, L.J. or Priest Holmes, this out come doesn’t look good for K.C.

Colts settle back into the ‘win’ column

Miami Dolphins(0-9) at Philadelphia Eagles(4-5) 1:00 PM

I’m battling demons on this pick. I’ve got a gut wrenching call from within telling me this is the week that the Dolphins win one. Jesse Chatman has been looking good and the Dolphins looked close to upsetting Buffalo last week. In fact, the Dolphins have lost five games by only three points. So close, yet so far! However, with the ability of Donovan McNabb and the continuing performance by Brian Westbrook regardless of whether the rest of the team has come to play just won’t let me do it.

Eagles win again, will it be by three?

New Orleans Saints(4-5) at Houston Texans(4-5) 1:00 PM

Just when we all thought Drew Brees and Reggie Bush had the Saints marching in, St. Louis steps up with a little shock and awe and derails them. Now they must travel to Houston to face Matt Schaub who, according to the Houston Chronicle, will be enjoying the return of 100% Andre Johnson. This could be just what the Texans need to get back on track after what looked like a great start this season.

Texans return from bye rested and ready to win

New York Giants(6-3) at Detroit Lions(6-3) 1:00 PM

This promises to be a good match up and a difficult pick. Eli Manning and the Giants had been on a roll before Dallas gave them a reality check and Jon Kitna and the Lions seem to be sink or swim. They either dominate and win, or flounder and lose big. So, after the Giants have lost their win streak and the Lions have had a floundering game just the week before, who will be the team to bounce back this week? I originally thought Giants, but the Lions are undefeated at home this year.

After much debate, Lions win at home

Oakland Raiders(2-7) at Minnesota Vikings(3-6) 1:00 PM

Yeah, so neither team is really all that good, but Minnesota has a play maker this year in Adrian Peterson. To bad he will now be watching this game from the sideline. After suffering a humiliating shut out at the hands of Green Bay, and losing Adrian Peterson in the process the Vikings will be looking to regain some form of self esteem this week. Unfortunately the Raiders have been looking to regain theirs for a lot longer. I think this is a week that the Raiders sneak in a win.

Raiders add insult to injury, defeating Petersonless Vikes

San Diego Chargers(5-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars(6-3) 1:00 PM

After an amazing win for the Chargers last week, we are still left to wonder whether or not the Chargers are going to be a true contender this year. It may be that they win the struggling AFC West for a playoff spot, but can they really contend without their opponent giving them a lot of help? Let’s face it, the Chargers offense was non-existent last week and only the luck of a missed 29 yard field goal won them a game they should have ran away with. Sure they could win again this week, but I’m not betting on it.

Jaguars continue to tail Indy

Tampa Bay Buccaneers(5-4) at Atlanta Falcons(3-6) 1:00 PM

A last second toss for Joey Harrington to Alge Crumpler may have been enough to get the win against a battered and beaten Carolina team, but I don’t think that will hold water as Atlanta opens their doors to the Buccaneers this week. Jeff Garcia lead this team into their bye week with a win and will look to the hands of Joey Galloway to help him lead them to a win in their return.

Buccaneers steal a win out of Atlanta

Pittsburgh Steelers(7-2) at New York Jets(1-8) 4:05 PM

Upset special? I don’t think so. Jets just haven’t had enough to get anything done this year. It makes last year look like a glitch in the time space continuum, or something scientifically unexplainable like that. Nope, I don’t think “Big” Ben Roethlisberger has any difficulties this week. No need for a comeback or game winning drive here.

Steelers win big in dominating performance

Chicago Bears(4-5) at Seattle Seahawks(5-4) 4:15 PM

No Shaun Alexander, no problem. Quite honestly, I’m inclined to believe that Alexander is beyond his usefulness after his awful performance thus far this year. The change to Maurice Morris should be a welcomed change. The Bears defense hasn’t been the force they once were and although Brian Griese has been a trade up from Rex Grossman it wasn’t far up. Nope, I’ll be taking the home team in this match up.

Seahawks look to hold onto the NFC West

St. Louis Rams(1-8) at San Francisco 49ers(2-7) 4:15 PM

Has Steven Jackson returned? Why not ask New Orleans. After the Rams secure their first win of the season I expect them to be driven by enthusiasm. The 49ers on the other hand have many people wondering, including me, why we thought they would be a break out team this season. Don’t know if this would be considered an upset, but I’m guessing the Rams are underdogs.

Rams secure a second victory, leaving the first round draft to Miami

Washington Redskins(5-4) at Dallas Cowboys(8-1) 4:15 PM

Tony Romo and Terrell Owen are insistent that they stay among the top teams of the NFL. What better way to accomplish that than to stay atop your division. So don’t expect to Cowboys to slack in a divisional match up against rival Washington. Clinton Portis may be racking up the yards for the Redskins offense, but Cowboys can easily match that with two running backs racking up yards in Marion Barber and Julius Jones.

Cowboys dominate in Texas Stadium

Sunday, November 18, 2007, Sunday Night Football

*Note: Sunday night games in Weeks 11-17 subject to change

New England Patriots(9-0) at Buffalo Bills(5-4) 8:15 PM

This game may have been moved to Sunday night because of the Bills hot streak and the division rivalry between these two teams, but does anyone really think that Trent Edwards can match touchdowns with Tom Brady? Banish the thought of J. P. Losman holding onto the start another week and having a good game. Then there is the question of the Bills defense lining up against New England, it’ll be like trying to keep a candle lit in a hurricane. Personally, I can think of better games to put in this time slot that will yield a more entertaining match up.

Patriots continue a perfect season

Monday, November 19, 2007, Monday Night Football

Tennessee Titans(6-3) at Denver Broncos(4-5) 8:30 PM

Vince Young will be leading the run heavy Titans into the deficient run defense Broncos home field for this Monday Night Match up. The problem for Tennessee lies in the fact that their running core, Chris Brown and LenDale White, are all knicked up and battered. Also let us not forget how Denver stepped up against Pittsburgh. Since Vince Young isn’t the best arm in the NFL, I expect the Broncos D will stack the line as they did against Big Ben and force Young to air it out. I’m taking the upset this week in Mile High and not just because I’m a homer, but because I actually believe it can happen.

Broncos take the win at Mile High

And that wraps up yet another week of picks, and what a long one it was as we return to a sixteen game week with no more byes for anyone. Will this be another week of parity? Or do the match ups play out in a predictable manner? That’s just one more decision to make. So as we are now past the mid-season mark, and more attention will be focused on the playoff race, I want to leave you with these words of wisdom:

“Men, I want you just thinking of one word all season. One word and one word only. Super Bowl.” –Houston Oilers Head Coach Bill Peterson

Saturday, November 10, 2007

NFL Week 10 ATS

Didn’t break the bank on my comeback week, but I did go above .500. Week 9 finished 8-6 for me. Been a rough year, lets see if I can improve this week.

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Sunday, November 11, 2007

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Jacksonville Jaguars +5
Tennessee Titans

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Denver Broncos +3
Kansas City Chiefs

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Buffalo Bills -3
Miami Dolphins

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Cleveland Browns +10
Pittsburgh Steelers

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St. Louis Rams
New Orleans Saints -11

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Atlanta Falcons +4
Carolina Panthers

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Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Redskins -3

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Minnesota Vikings
Green Bay Packers -6

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Cincinnati Bengals +3.5
Baltimore Ravens

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Chicago Bears
Oakland Raiders +3.5

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Dallas Cowboys -2.5
New York Giants

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Detroit Lions (Pick)
Arizona Cardinals

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Sunday, November 11, 2007 Sunday Night Football

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Indianapolis Colts -4
San Diego Chargers

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Monday, November 12, 2007 Monday Night Football

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San Francisco 49ers +10
Seattle Seahawks

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Let’s get these games going.

Tuesday, November 6, 2007

NFL Week 10 Picks

Week 9 is done and gone, and we finally had a game that lived up to the NFL hype! New England remains undefeated, but not by a dominating victory as Indianapolis simply failed to hold on to their fourth quarter lead. So what have we learned this week? “Any Given Sunday” is the rule, not the exception, and New England isn’t immortal. Granted they still stole away with the win, but they didn’t make it look easy.

Ok, so last week I had another average week finishing 9-5, which really isn’t too bad considering I was one of the few that dared to pick Indy for the upset. That brings my season totals to 79-51 (.608). I will be expecting a 14-0 week depending on whether or not my homer pick sinks or swims. Let’s get on with Week 10.

ALL TIMES ARE EASTERN

Sunday, November 11th 2007

Open Date: Houston Texans(4-5), New England Patriots(9-0), New York Jets(1-8), Tampa Bay Buccaneers(5-4)

Atlanta Falcons(2-6) at Carolina Panthers(4-4) 1:00 PM

In their last match up in Atlanta, the Panthers lost Jake Delhomme to injury as David Carr stepped in to preserve a victory on the road against this division rival. Even then the Panthers defense had difficulties slowing Joey Harrington who had been winless at that point. I think it’s too bad for the Falcons that they lost Byron Leftwich before this match up because I would have given them a shot in that case. However, that isn’t the case and it will be Harrington leading the Falcons in Charlotte, and although the Panthers have lacked enough fire to defeat the teams above .500, they should defeat the 2-6 Falcons.

Panthers rise above .500

Buffalo Bills(4-4) at Miami Dolphins(0-8) 1:00 PM

The first of two meetings for this team, Jason Taylor will look to revive the Dolphin defense in hopes that Cleo Lemon’s arm and Jesse Chatman’s fresh set of legs can muster up a few extra lights on the score board in their favor. When you 0-8, you’re hoping for a lot! I’ve even heard rumors about John Beck finding his way onto the field, if not this week then soon. It all sounds good and well, but the Bills are rolling into town on a win streak that should have them frothing at the mouth for more. Marshawn Lynch may defeat the Dolphins alone out of the back field now that he’s tasted his first NFL passing touchdown.

Bills continue to roll

Cleveland Browns(5-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers(6-2) 1:00 PM

Who would have thought that the Browns would be only one game behind the leading Steelers in the AFC North? Derek Anderson continues to hold Brady Quinn on the bench as his chemistry with Braylon Edwards is putting points on the board. With all the scoring this team has been rattling off, Jamal Lewis has re-familiarized himself with the end zone. But let us not forget that “Big” Ben Roethlisberger and company devastated Cleveland in their season opener. Granted Anderson didn’t start, but he was behind center before the end of the half. I predict that Cleveland will put up more of a fight this week, but the outcome will remain the same as long as Ben is able to play this week.

Steelers remind the Browns why they are still only second in the AFC North

Denver Broncos(3-5) at Kansas City Chiefs(4-4) 1:00 PM

As a Bronco fan, I was less than thrilled after hearing that we had acquired Patrick Ramsey as a back up for Jay Cutler. Now that Cutler may be out with an injury (thankfully a bruised leg, not broken) and after Ramsey’s failure to produce ANYTHING against Detroit until the game was a complete loss, I find it difficult to find any hope for Denver as they travel into Arrowhead stadium this week. The Bronco defense has also failed in their attempt to be productive this season. Yet, as a Bronco homer I find it against my morals to pick the division rival Chiefs to win. If Ramsey starts, I’m likely to lose this pick, but if Cutler returns I will retain a glimpse of hope.

It’s all about the homer! Denver wins.

Jacksonville Jaguars(5-3) at Tennessee Titans(6-2) 1:00 PM

In their first match up, Chris Brown ran wild over the Jacksonville defense and helped Vince Young lead their team to a close victory on the road. This week, the Titans look as if they will still be missing Brown in the line up as they bring the rematch to their own home field. If the Titans wish to sweep the series between this division rival their defense will need to find a way to contain Maurice Jones-Drew. If they accomplish that, then I see a Titan victory.

Titans continue to chase in the shadow of Indianapolis

Minnesota Vikings(3-5) at Green Bay Packers(7-1) 1:00 PM

I would think that most individuals watching this match up will rest the outcome on the shoulders of Brett Favre and his ‘Gunslinger’ throwing style. If he’s on, his arm will lead the Pack to victory, but if he’s off, they will surely fail. Personally, I think the key to the game is going to rest on the legs of Adrian Peterson. If Green Bay’s defense can hold him under 100 yards they should sweep their match ups with the Vikings, but if Peterson goes off on them as he has done against Chicago and San Diego the Vikings will steal a victory out of Green Bay.

Packers defense holds as Favre leads another victory

Philadelphia Eagles(3-5) at Washington Redskins(5-3) 1:00 PM

I would have never guessed a close game for Washington last week. I was certain they were dominating enough to put that one in the bag. Had they put away New York with ease last week I would feel confident in a victory over the Eagles this week. Now I have some doubts. Can Clinton Portis out produce Brian Westbrook? Which Donovan McNabb will we see this week, the one Philly loves or the one that has us shaking our heads? I think that as long as Jason Campbell can pitch a touchdown or two without an interception the outcome will go in favor of the home team.

Redskins take a home win

St. Louis Rams(0-8) at New Orleans Saints(4-4) 1:00 PM

Jackson’s in, Jackson’s out, the Rams will be hoping that Steven Jackson will be returning this week for their trip to New Orleans. They simply haven’t been able to get anything to go their way this season. Now they must take on the Saints, who have found their ‘A’ game. Drew Brees and Marques Colston have found their rhythm and Reggie Bush is trying to show that he’s all the Saints need in the back field with Deuce McAllister’s absence. Honestly, I think it’ll take more than just the return of Jackson for the Rams to win, they need a miracle. Sorry, I don’t think the Saints will be passing those out this week.

Saints dominate in the Superdome

Cincinnati Bengals(2-6) at Baltimore Ravens(4-4) 4:05 PM

I had been planning to pick the Ravens prior to the Monday Night game against Pittsburgh, but four turnovers in the first half alone? The Ravens can’t seem to run up a scoreboard and the Bengals can. It’s been mostly the Bengals defensive failure to hold an opponent to a lower score than the Bengals offense. Even with their short comings, I’m not sure Steve McNair will be able to get it done for the Ravens. Of course, I’m guessing that Carson Palmer is going to be operating without Chad Johnson in this match up, T. J. “Who’s Your Momma” should be able to pick up the slack.

Bengals bring more woes to Baltimore

Chicago Bears(3-5) at Oakland Raiders(2-6) 4:15 PM

Last year this game would have been a no brainer. This year I have questions as to whether or not the Bears can actually pull off this win. Brian Griese will have to keep his errors to a minimum against the Raiders defense that, by the way, isn’t as good as they were last year. Then the Bears defense will have to contain the continually struggling Oakland offense, but the Bears defense isn’t as good as they were last year either. Both teams are going through struggles, but I still think the Bears are more likely to walk away winners in this match up.

Bears manage a road win

Dallas Cowboys(7-1) at New York Giants(6-2) 4:15 PM

Oh goody, another divisional game that should be worth watching. Definitely not the same match up as Indy and New England, but the last time Eli Manning and Tony Romo faced off we saw a high scoring 35-45 game. That game took place in Dallas and the Cowboys walked away with the win. This game will be at Giant Stadium. Match ‘em up, Eli Manning and Plaxico Burress Vs Tony Romo and Terrell Owens and Brandon Jacobs Vs running tandem Julius Jones and Marion Barber. Here’s were I think the game will be determined. Both Defenses are giving up and average 5.9 passing yards per completion, but Dallas is only giving up 3.6 rushing yards per carry while the Giants are giving up 4.1 rushing yards per carry. In the first match up both quarterbacks threw four TD’s, but only Dallas rushed for a touchdown.

Dallas brings an end to the Giants win streak

Detroit Lions(6-2) at Arizona Cardinals(3-5) 4:15 PM

I was one of the first to laugh when Jon Kitna guaranteed a 10+ win season going into preseason. I’m not laughing any more. As Kevin Jones continues to work his way back into the Lions game plan and Kitna continues to hit receivers Roy Williams and Shaun McDonald we have to at least entertain the possibility that 10 wins could be a very realistic number for this team. With six down and four to go, they will travel to Arizona and take on Kurt Warner and the less than stellar Cardinals.

Lions will be three away from the promised 10 win season after this game

Sunday, November 11th 2007, Sunday Night Football

Indianapolis Colts(7-1) at San Diego Chargers(4-4) 8:15 PM

If Adrian Peterson can run wild on the Chargers defense, what will Joseph Addai do? At this point I think that the return of Marvin Harrison will be a bonus, but between Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, Peyton Manning is still moving down the field and putting up points. The Colts will definitely be looking to rebound after giving up their win and undefeated season to Tom Brady in a fourth quarter comeback of fourteen unanswered points off the Wes Welker and Kevin Faulk receptions. The key to a Charger victory in this match up would be a return of the LaDainian Tomlinson of last year, a MUCH better performance from Philip Rivers, and do you think it’s too late for the A.J. Smith to grovel at Marty Schottenheimer’s feet and beg for his return? I always said Norv Turner was no good as a head coach. That was the Chargers biggest mistake.

Colts rebound in their race for a playoff rematch with New England

Monday, November 12th 2007, Monday Night Football

San Francisco 49ers(2-6) at Seattle Seahawks(4-4) 8:30 PM

At this point it should almost be safe to write off Shaun Alexander as a dominate running back in the NFL. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 2 and hasn’t seen a 100 yard game since Week 3. In fact, his performance has been awful. Without a run game the margin for victory has rested solely in the hands of Matt Hasselbeck. Hasselbeck will be hoping for the return of Deion Branch this week, but may have to continue working with Bobby Engram, who hasn’t been bad, averaging 12.6 yards per reception and has three touchdowns. Good news for the Seahawks…they play at home and they host the 49ers.

Seahawks manage to remain atop the NFC West

And that finishes up yet another Week of NFL Picks. We pick apart, scrutinize, analyze, dissect, favor, add bias, mix facts, pull stats, and attempt to predict the outcome of every game, but parity always seems to find its way into an NFL week. So, I will conclude with the words of Giants defensive back, running back, and wide receiver Frank Gifford, “Pro football is like nuclear warfare. There are no winners, only survivors.”

Saturday, November 3, 2007

NFL Week 9 ATS Picks

Without any stats from last week, there’s nothing left to do this week but jump straight into picking the spread for Week 9. So away we go!

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Sunday, November 4, 2007

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Washington Redskins -4
New York Jets

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Green Bay Packers +2
Kansas City Chiefs

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Arizona Cardinals
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5

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Carolina Panthers
Tennessee Titans -4

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San Francisco 49ers +3
Atlanta Falcons

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Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5
New Orleans Saints

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Denver Broncos +3
Detroit Lions

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Cincinnati Bengals
Buffalo Bills +1

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San Diego Chargers -7
Minnesota Vikings

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Seattle Seahawks
Cleveland Browns -1.5

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New England Patriots
Indianapolis Colts +6

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Houston Texans +3
Oakland Raiders

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Sunday, November 4, 2007, Sunday Night Football

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Dallas Cowboys -3
Philadelphia Eagles

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Monday, November 5, 2007, Monday Night Football

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Baltimore Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers -10

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And there they are the Week 9 ATS picks. Good luck everyone.